Spoilt for choice

 Colin James has been crystal ball gazing:

Political analyst Colin James has tipped environment minister Amy Adams as a potential ‘dark horse’ successor to John Key, in a speech to the New Zealand Contractors’ Federation’s annual conference.

National is in the fortunate position of having a leader who enjoys the confidence of his caucus, party and the wider public so the issue of succession is not a pressing one.

Should it need to find a successor, the party would be spoilt for choice with a talented caucus. Amy is one of many who would be up to the very tough task of following one of the country’s most popular leaders.

The contrast with Labour couldn’t be starker.

Its leader doesn’t have the confidence of his caucus, party or wider public.

Its caucus isn’t awash with talent and it’s so divided it can’t find a successor on whom they can agree to replace David Shearer in spite of his unpopularity.

Mr James also told delegates at the event in Queenstown that his gut feeling was that there would be a third term National government, but the civil construction industry should plan ahead for the “90 per cent probability of a Labour/Greens based government in 2017.” . . .

Winning a second term isn’t a given but it’s more common than not.

A third term is much more difficult, a fourth is rare and has yet to happen under MMP.


5 Responses to Spoilt for choice

  1. Armchair Critic says:

    National rely on two things to win the next election. The current ineptitude shown by Labour must continue unabated. And Winston Peters.
    The two governments that have relied on WP have:
    lost the next election (1999 and 2008)
    lost more heavily in the election after that (2002 and 2011).
    Labour most certainly need some serious “renewal”.
    The contention that National are spoiled for choice is curious. Bill English or Steven Joyce or Judith Collins are often mentioned. I’d like to see any of them replace Key. Or all of them replace him, one by one.
    It’s also curious that you’ve even raised the matter. Why would you do that Ele? There’s no reason to even fly that kite until after the next election.
    I like the idea of Amy Adams as leader of the National party. I’ve sat and talked with her on the plane to Christchurch, she’s very nice. I also dealt with her on behalf of some of her constituents. The outcome of that was, well let’s just say she must be very busy in her role as minister.


  2. Captain Fantastic says:

    A Labour government is always a chilling prospect, even at a distance of 4 years. Apart from the dangerous ideas contained within, it is the sheer incompetence. How do they manage to achieve that ? Having a green Party component is simply nightmarish.
    My day has been ruined.


  3. Roger says:

    What is probably true is the next Labour PM is not in Parliament yet.


  4. Captain Fantastic says:

    I’d be happier if it hadn’t been born yet.


  5. jabba says:

    the Gween/Labor relationship in Aussie has just taken a beating


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