Political analyst Colin James has tipped environment minister Amy Adams as a potential ‘dark horse’ successor to John Key, in a speech to the New Zealand Contractors’ Federation’s annual conference.
National is in the fortunate position of having a leader who enjoys the confidence of his caucus, party and the wider public so the issue of succession is not a pressing one.
Should it need to find a successor, the party would be spoilt for choice with a talented caucus. Amy is one of many who would be up to the very tough task of following one of the country’s most popular leaders.
The contrast with Labour couldn’t be starker.
Its leader doesn’t have the confidence of his caucus, party or wider public.
Its caucus isn’t awash with talent and it’s so divided it can’t find a successor on whom they can agree to replace David Shearer in spite of his unpopularity.
Mr James also told delegates at the event in Queenstown that his gut feeling was that there would be a third term National government, but the civil construction industry should plan ahead for the “90 per cent probability of a Labour/Greens based government in 2017.” . . .
Winning a second term isn’t a given but it’s more common than not.
A third term is much more difficult, a fourth is rare and has yet to happen under MMP.