A tale of two polls

TV3 says LabourGreen are closing the gap on National:

National remains on top, with 47.3 percent – down 2.3 percent. Labour goes up to 33.1 percent; that’s up 2.9 percent. The Greens are up a tad, at 12 percent.

New Zealand First drop to 2.2 percent, beneath the 5 percent threshold required for leader Winston Peters to get back. . .

Patrick Gower says that’s proof the LabourGreen power play appeals to voters.
But TVNZ says National could rule alone:

National has jumped six points and is sitting pretty on 49 percent.

Labour has dropped three points, now at 33 percent.

The Greens have lost a big chunk of support, now in single digits on nine percent, while New Zealand First picked up a point to be on four percent. . .

Both polls are close enough to each other and both show that National is still fairly close to the support it got in the 2011 election which is an amazing feat given the natural and financial challenges the government has had to tackle.

But polls aren’t elections and there’s still nearly a year and a half until the next one.

6 Responses to A tale of two polls

  1. TraceyS says:

    The small changes up or down are irrelevant because there would have been errors present in both current and past data sets. This could easily cancel out the change or turn an increase into a decrease and vice versa.

    But both polls agree that Labour has 33% support. It would be hard to argue with that consistent outcome.

    It’s simplistic to argue that summing Labour and Green support is equivalent to summing United Future, Act and National support because the proportions are very different.

    Green party support represents about 25% of the sum of total Labour/Green support.

    Minor party support represents only 4% of the sum of total National/United Future/Act support.

    So in a country where lots of people don’t have strong political leanings, the election may come down to whether practical-thinking every-day New Zealanders want one party running the country or two… one ‘leader’ or three. Bit of a no-brainer I reckon.


  2. inventory2 says:

    Patrick Gower did his best to talk up the result for the Left, but even on 3News’ numbers, National has roughly the same level of support in had in 2011’s election, so to say that the public backs the NZ Power proposal is a pretty long bow to draw. National’s support is holding firm in spite of (or perhaps because of) the Budget, the sale of MRP shares and the signalled part-sale of more SOE’s this year. There’s also the SkyCity Convention Centre deal, going-on at the GCSB and Aaron Gilmore. If ever there were going to be polls showing a significant shift to the Left, you would think it would be these ones.


  3. pdm says:

    The one thing that is clear from polls over a period of time is that Labour’s `diehard’ or core support is in the 30-33% range and they struggle to get past that level.


  4. TraceyS says:

    Better for Labour and the Greens to merge, take a hit in support, and then re-emerge as something new.

    People don’t want two or three distinctly minority parties running the country. It’s a much different scenario to having one party with close to 50% along with the support of minority parties which give a voice to certain issues that might otherwise not be heard.

    We need strong leadership, not divided leadership. If the Labour and Green parties are so close, then they should become one.


  5. Andrei says:

    People don’t want two or three distinctly minority parties running the country.

    Most people don’t want National “running the country” and of those that favour them the vast majority do so because they is the best of an incredibly dismal bunch.


  6. TraceyS says:

    Most people would rather ANYONE run the country as long as it is someone other than themselves.

    Same with school boards.

    Same with councils.

    And so on.


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