Quote of the day:
. . . Before the electricity market could be replaced with a state-controlled pricing regime, two things would need to happen. Labour and the Greens would need to win the next election, and if they did they would need to carry out this policy. Neither, I think, is likely.
John Key remains the most widely admired of any New Zealand Prime Minister I have seen. National continues to lead all polls by a margin that is remarkable five years into the life of a government.
Unless something disastrous happens, he looks certain to win again next year. . .
But winning the most votes of any party isn’t enough under MMP, parties have to get above 50%, by themselves or in coalition.
Should National go into the election with no partners in prospect, an absolute majority is conceivable. Conventional wisdom says it is practically impossible because it hasn’t happened since 1951. But before then, it was not unusual.
Labour won more than 50 per cent of the vote in 1938 and 1946, as did National in 1949 as well as 1951. Since then many have gone as close as 47 per cent, including National at the last election when it became only the third post-war government to be re-elected with an increased share of the vote.
There is nothing magical about an extra 3 per cent. Conventional wisdom is destined to be surprised sooner or later.
It becomes more possible the more often David Shearer stands too close to the larrikin.
Shearer is a sensible man. To enact Norman’s scheme or Labour’s version of it, he would need to ignore all the economic advice available to him. . .
It can be very easy to ignore the soundest of advice if it doesn’t fit your policy and you’re more interested in power – or the electoral rather than the electrical kind – than people.
Yesterday’s Roy Morgan poll showed National up and LabourGreen down after the latter’s power plan was announced.
However, that poll is notoriously unreliable.
The next few polls will be more significant but even if they do give the thumbs down to the LabourGreen policy it’s more than a year until the election.
We have few one term governments which makes the odds on winning a second term better than reasonable.
Winning a third term is much harder.
Roughan’s comment shows there’s hope. Enough voters might understand the danger of powering back to seventies socialism to scorn LabourGreen.
But hope doesn’t win elections.
That takes good people, good policy, active party members, money and a lot of hard work.
There’s hope but no certainty.