John Armstrong looks at why National has remained so popular and has come up with 10 factors:
It is possible to list at least 10 potential factors as being responsible, some of which are pretty clear-cut while others are simply untested, gut-feeling hypothesising.
The first factor is Mr Key’s sky-high rating as most preferred prime minister. . .
Second, his moderate conservatism is in tune with the prevailing mood of the wider New Zealand electorate. . . .
Third, Mr Key is unashamedly pragmatic – a word that used to be anathema to purists who stood four-square behind Sir Roger Douglas and Ruth Richardson in the 1980s and early 1990s. No longer. Ideology takes a back seat with Mr Key. There is no lecturing of the public as to the kind of policy prescription that ought to be swallowed. There is instead a ”no surprises” approach, by and large. The Government does what it says it will do. . . .
The fourth factor is the neutralising of troublesome issues, rather than allowing them to linger and fester. . .
Fifth comes the economy. Labour’s recent private polling has confirmed a majority of voters view National as the better manager of the economy. They are likely to continue to do so in uncertain economic times. Why? Because Mr Key and Bill English have a proven track record in handling crises, like the Christchurch earthquakes, in a calm and unflustered fashion. . .
Sixth, National may have issued various vision documents which have ended up propping up shelves around the Beehive. However, the party is not all that good at articulating those visions. It is good, however, at maintaining momentum. . .
Seventh, National is still largely defining what the arguments are about across most policy areas. In doing so, it’s halfway to winning those arguments. . .
Eighth, opposition parties are instead still devoting considerable time and effort to fighting battles they have lost – such as partial privatisations – or trying to land hits on National by raking over the coals of history, Solid Energy being the prime example.
Ninth, the public may be getting acclimatised to the at-times rather chaotic nature of minority government. Ms Clark’s third term was marred by constant sideshows and distractions. Mr Key’s second term has been similarly afflicted, but it has not been damaged. . .
Tenth and last, the political temperature is benign in terms of governing. Apart from asset sales there are few, if any, issues that are seriously divisive and on which National finds itself stranded on the wrong side of the argument for ideological reasons. . .
Crucially, there’s no mood for change, the real government-killer, or even much hint of such a mood developing. National may still lose next year’s election, but only because of an absence of coalition partners. Its real enemy is MMP mathematics. It can’t do much about that.
The reality of MMP maths has not been lost on the government or the party. There is and will be no complacency about the result of next year’s election.
Voters usually give New Zealand governments a second term but it is much, much harder to win a third one. It is even more difficult for National which in MMP terms is a victim of its own success, having attracted voters from potential coalition partners leaves it with fewer possible partners.
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