Media blamed for low voter turnout

Political scientist Professor Jack Vowles has laid the blame for the low voter turnout at last year’s election at the media’s door:

“One problem is [the] mass perception that elections are not close and that the outcome is totally determined.

“I think that it’s a problem under MMP that people continue to estimate the closeness of an election by the poll difference between the two leading parties, whereas that is not necessary a clear predictor of what is going to happen.

“It may well be that a coalition of parties may be able to form a government even though the gap between the two major parties is not a close one at all.”

Most reporting of polls focuses on the popularity of the National and Labour leaders and highlights the gap between these two parties. It rarely focuses on the right and left groupings and possible coalition permutations. *

Professor Vowles said the format of televised leader’s debates had made the problem worse.

“The precedent of reintroducing television debates between the two major party leaders alone, without the participation of minor party leaders, is one of the things that tends to keep people thinking in terms of this difference of the two major parties.

“I think this is something that I would recommend does not happen in future because I think people will get a much better idea of the uncertainty of the election if the multi-party nature of it is more clearly put in front of them in a very high-profile television event.”

A debate with all the parties is a recipe for a lot more heat than light.

It’s difficult enough to get much worthwhile when it’s just two leaders and the chair, adding the leaders of the wee parties would allow even less time for proper discussion.

Professor Vowles said the similarity between the policies of the major parties had also alienated voters.

“Parties actually developing more coherent and distinctive policies is one way of generating interest in politics, but of course there is also an incentive by political parties to coverage on the median voter and so it is difficult always to do that.”

MMP forces the two main parties to court the centre voters which has a moderating impact on policies.

That said there are still stark differences between National and Labour and both parties offered voters distinct choices last year.

Professor Vowles’ comments were made to the Justice and Electoral Select Committee’s Inquiry into the 2011 General Election. His submission is here.

* The NBR is an exception to this – its report on Sunday’s TV1 poll is headlined: First post-budget poll has Labour-Green block neck-and-neck with National.