Compulsory read for political tragics

David Farrar has a 46 page compulsory read for political tragics.

It’s his analysis of the 2011 election results and includes:

  1. Overall results for NZ for each party and for each “bloc”.
  2. The change from 2008 to 2011 for each party and bloc.
  3. Results for each party and bloc by region and area.
  4. The change from 2008 to 2011 for each party and bloc by region and area.
  5. National’s Party Vote, Party Vote %, Electorate Vote, Electorate Vote %, Party Vote Change, Party Vote Relative Change, Electorate Vote Change, Electorate Vote Relative Change, and Electorate Vote compared to Party Vote – for each electorate from best to worst.
  6. Electorate Margins (from Nat point of view) and Electorate Majorities for all electorates.
  7. Labour’s Party Vote %, Electorate Vote %, Electorate Vote compared to Party Vote, Electorate Vote compared to Party Vote for Lab & Greens, Party Vote Change, Electorate Vote Change.
  8. Greens’ Party Vote % and Party Vote Change
  9. NZ First Party Vote % and Party Vote Change
  10. Conservative Party Vote %
  11. Maori Party Vote % and Party Vote Change
  12. Mana Party Vote %
  13. ACT Party Vote % and Party Vote Change
  14. United Party Vote % and Party Vote Change
  15. Right, Centre and Left Blocs Party Vote % and Party Vote Change
  16. Right vs Left Vote % and Party Vote Change
  17. Total Number of Voters per electorate
  18. Party Placings for Party and Electorate Vote

As National’s Southern regional chair I take pride, though not the credit, for the 3.8% increase in the party vote across the five southern electorates.

Canturbury Westland did even better with a 6% increase in the party vote. National gained the most in Christchurch, up 7.3% and Labour lost the most there – down 10.3%.

That is a vote of confidence in the government’s handling of the earthquakes and recovery, and in Gerry Brownlee who is the minister responsible for it.

Labour’s biggest decline was in the South Island – down 9.6% in Canterbury Westland and down 9.4% in Southern. The Green Party was the major beneficiary of that, going up 4.6% and 5.1% respectively.

 

 

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