As the three Davids and assorted hangers-on strive to lead the Labour Party, iPredict suggests the winner might not get the ultimate prize:
After last night’s TVNZ debate, David Cunliffe is now favoured to be the next leader of the Labour Party, with 42% probability, followed by David Shearer and David Parker who are both on 31% probability.
But, while iPredict also gives Labour a slightly better chance of winning the next election (53% probability), Cunliffe isn’t the favourite to be Prime Minister:
David Shearer has a 23% probability of being Prime Minister by 1 January 2015, compared with Bill English (14%), David Cunliffe (13%) and David Parker (7%).
Labour’s leadership is only one of its problems.
Changing leaders won’t by itself solve the rest. It’s possible whoever wins this leadership battle could be a casualty of the inevitable fallout from the hard decisions that need to be taken and won’t be leader long enough to become Prime Minister.