iPredict was a reliable indicator of election results and its now predicting that National could lose an MP after special votes are counted.
That will make it a bit more difficult to pass legislation and increase the need for support from the Maori Party.
Other predictions are:
* Labour favoured for 2014 election, with National’s party vote forecast to fall
* Parker favoured for Labour Leader and new 2014 PM stocks launched
* Act, Maori Party and United Future leaders, and Bridges and Tremain, expected to be Ministers outside Cabinet
* Adams, Foss and Guy expected to be promoted to Cabinet
* English safe in Finance and Collins set to take Justice
* Brownlee’s hold on Economic Development and Energy & Resources less certain
* Tolley and Coleman to lose Education and Immigration
* Commerce up for grabs
iPredict’s stocks on the new Cabinet suggest that a 20-member Cabinet would consist (in order of probability) of:
1. Gerry Brownlee (100%)
2. John Key (99%)
3. Bill English (99%)
4. Steven Joyce (98%)
5. Tony Ryall (98%)
6. Christopher Finlayson (98%)
7. Paula Bennett (98%)
8. Judith Collins(98%)
9. Hekia Parata (98%)
10. Anne Tolley (98%)
11. Murray McCully (96%)
12. Tim Groser (96%)
13. Jonathan Coleman (95%)
14. Nick Smith (95%)
15. Amy Adams (93%)
16. Craig Foss (93%)
17. Kate Wilkinson (93%)
18. Nathan Guy (89%)
19. Phil Heatley (89%)
20. David Carter (89%)
* Ministers Outside Cabinet are expected to be (in order of probability):
1. Peter Dunne (92%)
2. Tariana Turia (91%)
3. Pita Sharples (90%)
4. John Banks (74%)
5. Simon Bridges (66%)
6. Chris Tremain (66%)
Someone with a better grasp of predictions markets than me might be able to explain why the PM and deputy aren’t absolute certainties for staying in cabinet.
I have no inside knowledge on who might or might not stay as or become a minister but I’d put the chances of all those in iPredict’s 20 who were ministers in the 2008-11 government at or near 100% too.
That doesn’t leave much room for promotions but stability was one of the words used often in campaigning so I’m not expecting much change.
One commentator (sorry, can’t find the link) wrote of the possibility of three whips and some under-secretaries which would be one way to promote more MPs without making cabinet bigger.