Word of the day

November 27, 2011

Tired – exhausted, fatigued, sleepy; weary or bored; overused, hackneyed or stale; impatient.

We’re stuck with MMP

November 27, 2011

MMP gained 54.74% of the vote in the referendum compared with 42.62% for change.

That margin is too big to overturn with special votes.

I voted for change and am disappointed in that result.

I will await discussion on how the system might be improved in the knowledge that what people want and what the parties might find acceptable are very different.

Politics-free post

November 27, 2011

The best politics free post of the day:

My children are adults and either married or engaged to be married. As they approach a time when they will have their own families I often think of them with profound gratitude.  I find joy in all my memories of them as babies,  as children, as teenagers and as adults. Most of all though, I am grateful that I find joy in them today and every day. . .

You’ll find the rest in: In Praise of A Wise Woman at Look Up At The Sky.

They also serve

November 27, 2011

Among those waiting most anxiously for election results last night were those who will find they have or have not got a different job on Monday.

Among them are candidates who stood in electorates and worked their socks off, some were successful, some weren’t. Some who weren’t will still get into parliament on a list.

Most, regardless of which party they were standing for, were genuine in their belief in what they were doing and the principles and policies they were promoting.

Many will also have made big sacrifices to stand including forgoing income they could have been earning.

Today, regardless of how well their party did, some will be disappointed that their efforts won’t be rewarded by a seat in parliament.

They also serve who stand and lose.

Provinces still blue minus one – updated

November 27, 2011

Three years ago the map of the South Island was blue except for red dots in Christchurch and Dunedin.

Now Damien O’Connor has reclaimed West Coast-Tasman there’s a big red splash over there. However, Kate Wilkinson won Waimakiriri for National from Labour’s Clayton Cosgrove so that seat is now blue.

Ian Lees-Galloway held on to Palmerston North so Labour still  holds just two provincial seats.

But O’Connor is the one who chose not to stand on his party’s list because it was dominated by a “gaggle of gays and unionists” and people on the Primary Production select committee tell me that Lees-Galloway has no sympathy for nor understanding of farmers.

Labour is still very much a big-city party and it didn’t do very well there last night either, especially in the South Island.

Michael Woodhouse pulled Labour’s majority in Dunedin North back to 3,304 compared with 7155 in  2008. He was up against a new candidate in David Clark but National’s Party vote of 8,276 was only a few hundred behind Labour’s 8,863.

In Dunedin South National did even better, with a party vote of 13,190 compared with Labour’s 11,429. National’s candidate Joanne Hayes with 11,892 votes nearly halved Labour MP Clare Curran’s majority.

Three years ago when she was a new candidate Curran gained 6,449 votes and had a majority of 6,449, this time she dropped to 15,759 and a majority of 3,867 in what is one of the reddest electorates in the country.

In Clutha Southland Bill English won 19.726 votes, a majority of 14,915 and the party vote was 18,427 for National compared with 4,710 for Labour.

In Invercargill Eric Roy has a majority of 5,766 and National gained 15,089, nearly half of the 30,382 party vote.

Jacqui Dean held Waitaki with 21,404, a majority of 12,963 (up from a majority of 11,039 in 2008) and National gained 19,544 party votes from a  total of 35,622. Labour got only 7,627.

In Rangitata Jo Goodhew’s majority dropped a little which is probably a reflection on the strong support for Allan Hubbard and dismay over the statutory management of  South Canterbury Finance the Hubbards. She won 18,410 votes, a majority of 6,006 compared with 21,759 and a majority of 8,112  three years ago. National attracted 18,064 compared with 18,441  in 2008. Labour dropped from 13,230 to 9,113 in the party vote.

In Selwyn, Amy Adams gained 22,669 votes and National got 20,749 party votes.

If the election was a referendum on how the government has handled the earthquake recovery then Christchurch is supportive.

National’s Nicky Wagner and Labour’s Brendan Burns are drawn in Christchurch Central. Kate Wilkinson took Waimakariri and National got a party vote of 18,764 compared with Labour’s 7,746; and Gerry Brownlee held Illam with a majority of 11,935 and National’s party vote was 17,672 compared with Labour’s 5,723.

Only one poll counts

November 27, 2011

Only one poll counts and yesterday’s wasn’t quite what the polls forecast.

But that’s because the headlines and focus go on decided voters.

With around 15% of voters undecided a couple of days before the election it was unlikely that National would get more than 50%.

In 2002 a lot of swinging voters who weren’t going to support Labour decided National couldn’t win and spread their votes around Act, United Future and New Zealand First.

This time voters who weren’t going to support National decided Labour couldn’t win could have gone to the Green Party but as usually happens it didn’t do as well as polls predicted it might.

They might have gone to Mana, the Maori Party or United Future but instead those disaffected voters went to New Zealand First or didn’t vote at all.

The turn-out was only  73.2  of enrolled voters and 68% of the eligible population which is very low by New Zealand standards

Interestingly Horizon, the only poll which says it’s reflecting decided voters was the least reliable indicator of what actually happened.

Kiwiblog had a summary of polls on Friday:

Electorate margins

November 27, 2011

Only a handful of electorates changed hands in yesterday’s election:

Kate Wilkinson won Waimakariri for National with a margin of 395 over Clayton Cosgrove; Damien O’Connor took back West Coast Tasman for Labour with a majority of 2,287 over Chris Auckinvole;   and Rino Tirikatane won Te Tai Tonga from the Maori Party’s Rahui Katane with a majority of 1,445.

Christchurch Central is a tie between sitting MP, Labour’s Brendon Burns and National’s Nicky Wagner.

Auckland Central 100.0% KAYE, Nikki (NAT) ARDERN, Jacinda (LAB) 535
Bay of Plenty 100.0% RYALL, Tony (NAT) DEVOY-HEENA, Carol (LAB) 16,720
Botany 100.0% ROSS, Jami-Lee (NAT) WU, Chao-Fu (LAB) 10,054
Christchurch Central 100.0% BURNS, Brendon (LAB) WAGNER, Nicky (NAT) 0
Christchurch East 100.0% DALZIEL, Lianne (LAB) GILMORE, Aaron (NAT) 4,954
Clutha-Southland 100.0% ENGLISH, Bill (NAT) LOO, Tat (LAB) 14,915
Coromandel 100.0% SIMPSON, Scott (NAT) KININMONTH, Hugh (LAB) 11,800
Dunedin North 100.0% CLARK, David (LAB) WOODHOUSE, Michael (NAT) 3,304
Dunedin South 100.0% CURRAN, Clare (LAB) HAYES, Joanne (NAT) 3,867
East Coast 100.0% TOLLEY, Anne (NAT) MACKEY, Moana (LAB) 4,487
East Coast Bays 100.0% McCULLY, Murray (NAT) GOLDSMITH, Vivienne (LAB) 13,479
Epsom 100.0% BANKS, John (ACT) GOLDSMITH, Paul (NAT) 2,485
Hamilton East 100.0% BENNETT, David (NAT) ORGAD, Sehai (LAB) 7,708
Hamilton West 100.0% MACINDOE, Tim (NAT) MORONEY, Sue (LAB) 4,059
Helensville 100.0% KEY, John (NAT) GREENBROOK-HELD, Piers Jeremy (LAB) 19,116
Hunua 100.0% HUTCHISON, Paul (NAT) HILLS, Richard (LAB) 15,514
Hutt South 100.0% MALLARD, Trevor (LAB) QUINN, Paul (NAT) 4,193
Ilam 100.0% BROWNLEE, Gerry (NAT) PARSONS, John (LAB) 11,935
Invercargill 100.0% ROY, Eric (NAT) SOPER, Lesley (LAB) 5,766
Kaikōura 100.0% KING, Colin (NAT) COLLYNS, Liz (LAB) 10,534
Mana 100.0% FAAFOI, Kris (LAB) PARATA, Hekia (NAT) 1,857
Māngere 100.0% SIO, Sua William (LAB) HAUITI, Claudette (NAT) 13,356
Manukau East 100.0% ROBERTSON, Ross (LAB) BAKSHI, Kanwaljit Singh (NAT) 13,850
Manurewa 100.0% WALL, Louisa (LAB) CALDER, Cam (NAT) 7,230
Maungakiekie 100.0% LOTU-IIGA, Peseta Sam (NAT) BEAUMONT, Carol (LAB) 2,787
Mt Albert 100.0% SHEARER, David (LAB) LEE, Melissa (NAT) 9,055
Mt Roskill 100.0% GOFF, Phil (LAB) BLUE, Jackie (NAT) 6,383
Napier 100.0% TREMAIN, Chris (NAT) NASH, Stuart (LAB) 3,382
Nelson 100.0% SMITH, Nick (NAT) STREET, Maryan (LAB) 6,663
New Lynn 100.0% CUNLIFFE, David (LAB) GROSER, Tim (NAT) 4,475
New Plymouth 100.0% YOUNG, Jonathan (NAT) LITTLE, Andrew (LAB) 4,130
North Shore 100.0% BARRY, Maggie (NAT) CLARK, Ben (LAB) 13,739
Northcote 100.0% COLEMAN, Jonathan (NAT) GILLON, Paula (LAB) 8,535
Northland 100.0% SABIN, Mike (NAT) STEWART, Lynette (LAB) 10,655
Ōhariu 100.0% DUNNE, Peter (UFNZ) CHAUVEL, Charles (LAB) 1,646
Ōtaki 100.0% GUY, Nathan (NAT) FOSTER, Peter (LAB) 5,099
Pakuranga 100.0% WILLIAMSON, Maurice (NAT) KAUSHAL, Sunny (LAB) 12,879
Palmerston North 100.0% LEES-GALLOWAY, Iain (LAB) HAPETA, Leonie (NAT) 3,001
Papakura 100.0% COLLINS, Judith (NAT) MIKA, Jerome (LAB) 9,339
Port Hills 100.0% DYSON, Ruth (LAB) CARTER, David (NAT) 2,925
Rangitata 100.0% GOODHEW, Jo (NAT) BLANCHARD, Julian (LAB) 6,006
Rangitīkei 100.0% McKELVIE, Ian (NAT) PAGANI, Josie (LAB) 8,741
Rimutaka 100.0% HIPKINS, Chris (LAB) FLETCHER, Jonathan (NAT) 3,126
Rodney 100.0% MITCHELL, Mark (NAT) CRAIG, Colin (CNSP) 11,011
Rongotai 100.0% KING, Annette (LAB) FINLAYSON, Christopher (NAT) 8,022
Rotorua 100.0% McCLAY, Todd (NAT) CHADWICK, Steve (Stephanie) (LAB) 6,867
Selwyn 100.0% ADAMS, Amy (NAT) McLEAN, Jo (LAB) 17,708
Tāmaki 100.0% O’CONNOR, Simon (NAT) BAKULICH, Nick Iusitini (LAB) 16,257
Taranaki-King Country 100.0% ARDERN, Shane (NAT) BARKER, Rick (LAB) 14,093
Taupō 100.0% UPSTON, Louise (NAT) CAMPBELL, Frances (LAB) 13,049
Tauranga 100.0% BRIDGES, Simon (NAT) HORAN, Brendan (NZF) 15,812
Te Atatū 100.0% TWYFORD, Phil (LAB) HENARE, Tau (NAT) 4,653
Tukituki 100.0% FOSS, Craig (NAT) HAYDON-CARR, Julia (LAB) 9,032
Waikato 100.0% TISCH, Lindsay (NAT) SUTTON, Kate (LAB) 12,965
Waimakariri 100.0% WILKINSON, Kate (NAT) COSGROVE, Clayton (LAB) 395
Wairarapa 100.0% HAYES, John (NAT) BOTT, Michael (LAB) 6,695
Waitakere 100.0% BENNETT, Paula (NAT) SEPULONI, Carmel (LAB) 349
Waitaki 100.0% DEAN, Jacqui (NAT) MONKS, Barry (LAB) 12,963
Wellington Central 100.0% ROBERTSON, Grant (LAB) FOSTER-BELL, Paul (NAT) 5,111
West Coast-Tasman 100.0% O’CONNOR, Damien (LAB) AUCHINVOLE, Chris (NAT) 2,287
Whanganui 100.0% BORROWS, Chester (NAT) McDOUALL, Hamish (LAB) 4,786
Whangarei 100.0% HEATLEY, Phil (NAT) NEWMAN, Pat (LAB) 11,674
Wigram 100.0% WOODS, Megan (LAB) COLLINS, Sam (NAT) 1,533
Hauraki-Waikato 100.0% MAHUTA, Nanaia (LAB) GREENSILL, Angeline (MANA) 5,373
Ikaroa-Rāwhiti 100.0% HOROMIA, Parekura (LAB) RAIHANIA, Na (MAOR) 5,924
Tāmaki Makaurau 100.0% SHARPLES, Pita (MAOR) JONES, Shane (LAB) 746
Te Tai Hauāuru 100.0% TURIA, Tariana (MAOR) PEKE-MASON, Soraya Waiata (LAB) 2,760
Te Tai Tokerau 100.0% HARAWIRA, Hone Pani Tamati Waka Nene (MANA) DAVIS, Kelvin (LAB) 874
Te Tai Tonga 100.0% TIRIKATENE, Rino (LAB) KĀTENE, Rāhui (MAOR) 1,445
Waiariki 100.0% FLAVELL, Te Ururoa James (MAOR) SYKES, Annette Te Imaima (MANA) 1,820

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