Polls suggest that the status quo will be chosen by most people who vote in the referendum on MMP.
They also show the alternative which gets most support is FPP.
iPredict has the probability of retaining MMP varying from 70 – 90%.
But even if a majority vote for change in the referendum I don’t think FPP would stand a chance in the second referendum against MMP in 2014 and the chances of another system getting majority support aren’t high.
The majority of organisations registered with the Electoral Commission to campaign on the issue are supporters of MMP – including the Green and Labour parties and several unions.
Most people don’t know enough about the alternatives except FPP to be keen on one and there is no campaign – at least yet – for any other option.
Next month’s referendum will be the last chance to get a different electoral system for decades unless a majority vote for change. But unless there’s a lot more effort put into educating voters about the options and promoting an alternative to both MMP and FPP, we’re likely to be stuck with what we’ve got.