iPredict’s weekly update shows the grounding of the Rena has led to a weakening of support for National with increased support for Labour and the Green Party.
The Rena grounding has hurt National and helped Labour and the Greens, iPredict’s first weekly snapshot since the disaster suggests. According to the online predictions market with its 5000 registered traders, National’s forecast party vote has plunged from 50% last week to just 46% this week, potentially costing it five MPs compared with last week, while its Bay of Plenty MP, Tony Ryall, is now expected to suffer a reduced majority. Labour is up from 28.5% to 31.0%, which would give them 39 MPs, while the Greens are also big winners from the disaster, increasing their forecast party vote for the fifth week in a row to 11.1% which would deliver them 14 MPs.
The decline in support for potential coalition partners – Act, United Future and the Maori party, makes it likely National would have to do better than it did in 2008 to retain power. However iPredict is still forecasting the party would be able to govern with just one coalition partner.
Forecast party vote shares are now: National 46.0% (down from 50.0% last week) Labour 31.0% (up from 28.5% last week), the Greens 11.1% (up from 10.7% last week), New Zealand First 4.7% (up from 3.6% last week), Act 3.1% (down from 3.2% last week), UnitedFuture 1.6% (up from 1.1% last week), the Maori Party 1.2% (down from 1.4% last week), the Mana Party 1.1% (up from 1.0% last week), the Conservative Party 1.0% (up from 0.9% last week), and the New Citizen Party 0.5% (steady).
Based on this data, and the electorate results above, Parliament would be as follows: National 58 MPs, Labour 39 MPs, the Greens 14 MPs, Act 4 MPs, the Maori Party 3 MPs, UnitedFuture 2 MPs, and the Mana party just 1 MP. There would be 121 MPs, requiring a government to have the support of 61 MPs on confidence and supply. John Key’s National Party would be able to govern with any one of the Greens, Act or Maori Party.
Given New Zealand First’s proximity to MMP’s 5% threshold, iPredict has also analysed what might happen should New Zealand First win 5.0% of the vote. Under this scenario, Parliament would be as follows: National 56 MPs, Labour 37 MPs, the Greens 13 MPs, New Zealand First 6 MPs, Act 4 MPs, the Maori Party 3 MPs, UnitedFuture 2 MPs, and the Mana Party just 1 MP. There would be 122 MPs, requiring a government to have the support of 62 MPs on confidence and supply meaning John Key’s National Party would require the support of the Greens, or Act and one of the Maori or UnitedFuture parties.
Punters betting through Centrebet are still putting their money on a National win.
Money is continuing to come in hard for the National Party government to win the November 26 NZ election, bets in the last few hours include $10,000.00 and $3,000.00 at $1.11!
“It’s seemingly all one-way traffic now, with National into a hot $1.09 favourite, and embattled Labour out to $7.00,” Neil Evans said.
“This is obviously the biggest the Opposition has been since the head-to-head betting market was launched at the start of the year!”
Both Australian and NZ-based punters are taking the short odds on National, which now holds 92% of the stakes!
But there is still a month and a half until the election and as David Farrar pointed out in his Herald column events can undermine support for even a very popular government.