National could govern alone: iPredict

Several polls have been showing National attracting at least 50% support. For the first time iPredict is also pointing to national being able to govern alone.

A media release from iPredict says:

Following last week’s World Cup wobble, John Key’s National Government has recovered with its forecast party vote reaching a record reported high of 49.0%, this week’s snapshot from New Zealand’s prediction market, iPredict, suggests. Maori Party Co-Leader Dr Pita Sharples is now expected to retain Tamaki-Makaurau, although the gap with Labour’s Shane Jones remains narrow. Labour’s Trevor Mallard is expected to improve his majority in Hutt South while Labour’s Clare Curran is expected to reduce hers in Dunedin South. In economics, forecasts for inflation, the current account deficit, unemployment, the OCR and future Fonterra payouts have all fallen . . .

All current leaders of parliamentary parties have at least a 92% probability of remaining in their positions until the election. The most vulnerable remains Labour Party leader Phil Goff, but with the market forecasting just a 8% probability he will be replaced prior to the election (down from 9% last week). There is a 39% probability (up from 35% last week) that there will be changes to the top ten of Labour’s party list, announced on 10 April 2011, when it is registered with the Electoral Commission. . .

On a seat-by-seat basis, National is expected to win 40 electorate seats, Labour 24 (down from 25 last week), the Maori Party 3 (up from 2 last week), and Act, United Future and the Mana Party 1 seat each.

Party Vote, and Election Results

Forecast party vote shares are now: National 49.0% (up from 46.5% last week) Labour 30.2% (down from 31.4% last week), the Greens 8.0% (up from 7.9% last week), Act 4.1% (down from 4.4% last week), New Zealand First 4.0% (down from 4.5% last week), UnitedFuture 1.6% (up from 1.5% last week), the Maori Party 1.5% (steady), the Mana Party 1.0% (up from 0.9% last week), the Conservative Party 0.9% (steady), and the New Citizen Party 0.5% (up from 0.4% last week).

Based on this data, and the electorate results above, Parliament would be as follows: National 62 MPs, Labour 38 MPs, the Greens 10 MPs, Act 5 MPs, the Maori Party 3 MPs, UnitedFuture 2 MPs, and the Mana Party with just 1 MP. There would be 121 MPs, requiring a government to have the support of 61 MPs on confidence and supply, meaning John Key’s National Party would be able to govern alone.

Overall the market indicates a 94% probability there will be a National Prime Minister after the election (up from 93% last week).

People like me on the blue team can dream and the live update on electionresults.co.nz  has a pretty picture.

But it’s still 2 1/2 months until election day.

The chances of National retaining  its leadership of the government are good but it is very unlikely the party will keep enough support to govern alone when people actually vote.

Even if National did manage to get an outright majority, which rarely happened under First Past the Post and has never happened since we’ve had MMP, John Key has said he would seek to include other parties in government.

12 Responses to National could govern alone: iPredict

  1. pmofnz says:

    “he would seek to include other parties”

    Might as well include Liarbour. Over the past 3 years, the only difference in policy implementation is in the name.

  2. smttc says:

    Cheap shot pmofnz. National may not yet be fully adhering to its founding principles. But it made promises to the voters it said it would not depart from for at least one term if elected. Plus it carried through on tax cuts it promised and has reversed many socialist policies it said it would reverse or never made promises about (eg R&D tax credit, public service jobs). You would have the party continue the electorate distrust of politicians saying one thing to get elected and then doing another. Why do you think John Key is so popular? People trust him.

    Just as importantly, even if there had been no difference in policy implementation to date, what John Key and National has delivered is a gentler, more honest, more in touch form of government rather the previous 9 years under Helen Clark.

    And yes I know some on the right love to get all fired up about the ETS, Smacking Law etc etc. And I do not deny that these issues are important in themselves. But they are not issues which mean as much to the great unwashed in the middle who actually vote governments in and out. They do not elect and throw out governments over such issues.

    Give me John Key and National over the arrogant Labour party anyday. And just remember if you and all the other whinging righties moaning about National don’t vote then you cannot complain on the other side.

  3. pmofnz says:

    SMTTC,

    “You would have the party continue the electorate distrust of politicians saying one thing to get elected and then doing another”

    Doing another. Exactly what he has done by his actions in these past 3 years. Pandering to racist separatists being a prime example.

    “if you and all the other whinging righties moaning about National don’t vote”

    While I may often whinge, I fully intend to vote. But it will never be for National ever again. Key has shafted the conservative right. He deserves to lose this election to a leftard coalition of the damned.

  4. homepaddock says:

    PM – if National has been too centrist for you, voting for a party further to the right would make sense.

    But wishing a multi headed left wing beast on the electorate does not.

  5. Peter says:

    Good Grief Essemteeteesea ! Why would you prefer the arrogant national party over the arrogant labour party? What about the arrogant Nick Smith and his 180 degrees on ETS. What about the arrogant handling of Seabed & Foreshore? The continuing assault on property rights? The statement “But they are not issues which mean as much to the great unwashed in the middle who actually vote governments in and out.” tells me that the national party will do anything, bend anything, sell anything, everything on the table, nothing excluded, to hang onto power at all cost. Clearly there is a major concern about national turning it’s back on principles. Trying to be all things to all people, national has sold its soul. National puts low values on principles once held dearly. Outflanking labour on the left. It hardly surprises that labour is awash and left sinking in the wake. Goff must be wondering where all the rats have gone?

  6. smttc says:

    Ah, a masochist in our presence. This is what concerns me about extreme righties like big bruv, redbaiter etc and now seemingly pmofnz. They would rather abandon the ship than retreat to fight another day. You get the government you deserve with that attitude.

  7. Colin McIntyre says:

    In support of pmonz and Peter re above posts.
    Approx 22 years ago as a newly elected secretary of my local branch of the NZ National Party I was secunded to take part in the selection of a new candidate for the party at Dipton.
    With the election in the near future, I am reminded of that Country and Western song ” For 21 years Dear’s A Mighty Long Time.”
    As the last man standing of the local branch and since I have watched with alarm as my support for National has eroded, even more so, during the present term of Parliament.

  8. pmofnz says:

    “wishing a multi headed left wing beast”

    If that is what it takes to get back to a right of centre government with attitude, so be it. Obviously National did not learn any lessons of the past decade.

    Colin, cheers for support. Unfortunately I guess your tenure might be numbered.

  9. homepaddock says:

    “If that is what it takes to get back to a right of centre government with attitude, so be it. ”

    You might not like the pace but under National we’re heading in the right direction.

    If the country lurches left we’d just get another socialist administration takign us backwards again by trying to buy more people’s votes with other people’s money.

    One of the advantages of MMP is that you could vote for a party on National’s right to pull the government further in that direction rather than allowing back a multi-headed mess led by Labour which hasn’t learned from the damage it did from 1999-2008.

  10. Neil says:

    What about your support for your numerous dabbles in other parties Colin ? ACT,South Island Party,NZ First etc.
    Fast and furious change is not the way to go. Remember Sir Roger Douglas who changed things so quickly, in comparison to Australia where Keating and Costello took things a good deal slower.
    Raw and powerful economics can be done but just remember the human wreckage that that can incurr. I’m sure a lot of the older farmers will remember those days unhappily. The suicides,women having to work in town to keep the house going,the ruination of rural communities and other results.Remember, the economy is there to serve the people not stand over them like a monster.
    Will small town and country communities ever be the same again after the 80’s?The sense of community has disappeared forever through changed practices and rural depopulation.
    Your comments are very appropriate Ele.

  11. Colin McIntyre says:

    It is hard to get things right in all facets of life Neil, but I have never made the mistake of voting for NZ First etc.
    Once we get over the sideshow of the RWC there is only a short time to be involved in the General Election.
    Colin Craig has come out of the blocks well in the race for the Rodney seat.
    Will this allow Rodney to cause an upset in Epsom?
    Will John Key learn that principles do count?

  12. Peter says:

    The problem is Neil, that it is very hard to tell the difference between national and labour. This is a major problem for the ratbag reds, seriously. National has stolen their market, their base, their philosophy, call it what you will. National is the big government party. National does labour better than labour. Robbing Peter to pay Paul par excellence. Who can meddle, interfer, fiddle, adjust better than the big nanny national run state. National have always had a well earned reputation for being good tax collectors. You go on about the catastrophic end of subsidies and the devastation wrought in rural communities.This was the inevitable consequence of years of bad government subsidising a high cost meat industry, and they called it a subsidy for farmers. Classic government meddling and bungling. Better get out of your ivory tower Neil, it is hanging in mid air.

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