Panic could lead to leadership change

September 9, 2011

Trans Tasman opines:

Tactically, logically, and in every possible medium term political calculation, Labour leader Phil Goff should be safe until after the election. It makes no sense for anyone else to want to take over and lead the party into what is seen as an inevitable defeat. . . .

But  . . . we can’t rule out a sudden, panicky, caucus mudslide which sweeps Goff aside before the election campaign starts properly. If it were done around the time of the Rugby World Cup quarter or semi-finals, a lot of people might not even notice.

But if nobody is likely to notice why would they do it?

The more Labour’s polling stays in the mid-20s, the more likely enough Labour MPs, facing the prospect not only of another three years of opposition but of losing their seats, will panic.

Panic isn’t one of the better reasons for a leadership change.

But if the polls continue what appears to be an inexorable slide towards a worse result than 2008, panic could combine with self-interest and prompt at least one of the four would-be leaders to chance their hand.

The danger is that if one gives it a go at least one of the others will want to be in contention too. Instead of a quick, clean coup they’ll get a prolonged and messy contest which will provide yet another reason to panic.


September 9 in history

September 9, 2011

9 Arminius’ alliance of six Germanic tribes ambushed and annihilated three Roman legions of Publius Quinctilius Varus in the Battle of the Teutoburg Forest.

1000 Battle of Svolder.

1379  Treaty of Neuberg, split Austrian Habsburg lands between the Habsburg Dukes Albert III and Leopold III.

1493 Battle of Krbava field, a decisive defeat of Croats in the fight against the invasion by the Ottoman Empire.

1513  James IV of Scotland was defeated and died in the Battle of Flodden Field, ending Scotland’s involvement in the War of the League of Cambrai.

1543 Mary Stuart, at nine months old, was crowned “Queen of Scots”.

1739 Stono Rebellion, the largest slave uprising in Britain’s mainland North American colonies prior to the American Revolution, started.

1754 William Bligh, British naval officer, was born (d. 1817).

1776 The Continental Congress officially named its new union of sovereign states the United States.

Congress voting independence.jpg

1791  Washington, D.C., the capital of the United States, was named after President George Washington.

1828 Leo Tolstoy, Russian novelist, was born (d. 1910). 

1839 John Herschel took the first glass plate photograph. 

1850 – The Compromise of 1850 stripped Texas of a third of its claimed territory in return for the U.S. federal government assuming $10 million of Texas’s pre-annexation debt. 

1886 The Berne Convention for the Protection of Literary and Artistic Works was finalised. 

1914  World War I: The creation of the Canadian Automobile Machine Gun Brigade, the first fully mechanized unit in the British Army.

1922 Greco-Turkish War of 1919-1922 ended with Turkish victory over the Greeks.

1922 Hoyt Curtin, American songwriter, was born (d. 2000).

1923  Mustafa Kemal Atatürk founded the Republican People’s Party.

1924 Hanapepe Massacre on Kauai, Hawaii.

1926 he U.S. National Broadcasting Company was formed.

1940 George Stibitz pioneered the first remote operation of a computer. 

1941 Otis Redding, American singer and songwriter, was born (d. 1967).

1942  World War II: A Japanese floatplane dropped an incendiary bomb on Oregon.

1944  World War II: The Fatherland Front tookpower in Bulgaria through a military coup in the capital and armed rebellion in the country estagblishing anew pro-Soviet government. 

1945  Second Sino-Japanese War: Japan formally surrendered to China. 

1945 First  case of a computer bug being found: a moth lodged in a relay of a Harvard Mark II computer at Harvard University.

1948 Republic Day of Democratic People’s Republic of Korea.

1951 Alexander Downer, Australian politician, was born.

1952 David A. Stewart, English musician (Eurythmics), was born.

1956 Elvis Presley appearedon The Ed Sullivan Show for the first time.

1960 Hugh Grant, English actor, was born.

1965 – Hurricane Betsy made its second landfall near New Orleans, Louisiana, leaving 76 dead and $1.42 billion ($10–12 billion in 2005 dollars) in damages. 

1966 Adam Sandler, American actor and comedian, was born.

1969  Rachel Hunter, New Zealand model and actress, was born.

1969  Allegheny Airlines Flight 853 DC-9 collided in flight with a Piper PA-28 and crashed near Fairland, Indiana.

1971  The four-day Attica Prison riot began.

1976 The Wanganui Computer Act established the New Zealand government’s first centralised electronic database.

Wanganui Computer legislation passed

1990  1990 Batticaloa massacre, massacre of 184 minority Tamil civilians by Sri Lankan Army.

1991 Tajikstan gains independence from the Soviet Union.

1993  The Palestine Liberation Organization officially recognised Israel as a legitimate state.

2000 Victoria Federica de Marichalar y de Borbón, granddaughter of king Juan Carlos I of Spain, was born.

2001 Ahmed Shah Massoud, leader of the Northern Alliance, was assassinated in Afghanistan.

2001 – Pärnu methanol tragedy  in Pärnu County,  Estonia.

2004  –  Australian embassy bombing in Jakarta killed 10 people.

 2009 – Vladikavkaz bombing:  a suicide car bomber detonated his explosives at the Central market in Vladikavkaz killing at least 17 and injuring more than 160.

Sourced from NZ History Online & Wikipeida


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