Leading Act where?

Don Brash’s expectation that his leadership would enable Act to get 20% support was always
fanciful.

The best the party’s done was 7.1% in 2002 when National was at its nadir. To get even that
when National is polling so strongly was never realistic but he, and the party, will be very disappointed that the polls aren’t showing any noticeable surge in support.

When challenging for Act’s leadership, Brash said he’d managed to make a real difference to National as leader, taking it very close to winning the 2005 election.

But Brash’s leadership wasn’t the only factor in that result.

Part of the credit for that was the change in National’s constitution brought about by then leader Bill English, president Judy Kirk and general manager Steven Joyce. That revolutionised the party organisation and for the first time since MMP was introduced, National ran a campaign for the party vote.

The party also had a solid foundation of members on which to build and a functioning volunteer structure in every electorate. They provided a nation-wide network of people ready to back up the new leadership.

Act had a much shakier foundation. Its membership probably wasn’t much above the 500 minimum needed for registration when Brash took over.

Act’s finances might have improved with the change of leadership but while parties need money for campaigns, there’s a lot more to winning votes than that.

They need to be united, well organised and have a message which is based on clear principles
and philosophy.

Brash says he’s offering the same prescription he offered in 2005. But while his message
hasn’t changed, other things have.

Back then he was offering the prospect of an alternative government. This time his party will be a minor coalition party in government, sitting on the cross benches or in opposition. Minor parties get some policy concessions, those on the cross benches or in opposition might be able to block legislation but rarely get much of their own policy enacted.

In 2005 Brash was up against a government coming to the end of its second term whose popularity was waning. This time National is in its first term and still getting unprecedented support in the polls.

In 2005, voters were open to radical change, this year they are showing no appetite for
that at all.

Brash did lead National close to victory in 2005 but he didn’t do it by himself. He had a
major party with a united caucus and strong volunteer base behind him.

Now he’s leading a wee party with a divided caucus and few volunteers and the polls
reflect that.