The only way is . . . ?

Any hopes Labour might have taken from last week’s One News Colmar Brunton poll which showed a slight increase in support will have been dashed by last night’s 3 News Reid poll which shows they’ve dropped 3.8 to just 27.1%.

That would mean they’d get just 34 seats. Several sitting MPs would lose their jobs and only one new MP would come in on the list – former party president Andrew Little.

If, as often happens, loss of party support leads to fewer votes for individual MPs the party could also lose some electorate seats. That wouldn’t affect the overall number of MPs they get but it would further weaken the party.

The only way to go from 27% ought to be up  which is what happened last time Labour was there and it could happen again. But this poll shows not just Labour but left as a whole is less popular.

The two coalition supporters Labour could rely on also lost support. The Green Party dropped .5 to 7.7%. New Zealand First had a similar drop to 2.8% which is only just over half way to the 5% threshold needed to get into parliament without winning an electorate.

The Maori Party which could choose to go with Labour or National, or stay out of government had a slight increase in support – up .2% to 2.5% and Act which would go with National or stay on the cross benches was up 1.1 t0 1.7%.

National went up 2.9 to 57.5% and dearly as I would like that sort of result on election night it would be virtually impossible to translate that level of support into votes.

Although Kiwiblog says the TV3 poll was the most accurate one in the last two elections it’s still seven and a bit months until election day and anything could happen before then.

Labour might be in despair about their lack of traction but National can’t afford to be complacent when the only likely way to go from these poll heights is down.

However, those of us on the centre right can take heart that the public does appear to realise that borrow and spend policies won’t help and policies which lead to more savings, investment and export growth is what we need.

5 Responses to The only way is . . . ?

  1. pdm says:

    I have been baiting Labour diehards over at Red Alert about Labour polling below 20% on election day for over 6 months. It looks like I might be on the right track.

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  2. gravedodger says:

    I think TV3 are using a different polling company now so it’s reputation that was even liked by Dear Leader, may not necessarily be as accurate.
    Pleasing trends though. Seems to be strong support for the attempts by the current Government to turn the “Titanic” around without rolling it over.
    Good first steps to bring some sanity to the great student loan bribe. I am for ever at a complete loss in understanding why an aspiring student needs so much taxpayer subsidised help while an aspiring businessman/woman has to front up to a Bank for their stake in a corner dairy, farm or whatever. I guess they would vote National anyway so the bribe wont work.

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  3. homepaddock says:

    PDM – the trend is your friend ont his.

    GD – sadly not all aspiring business people vote National anyway – but we’re doing our best to convert them:)

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  4. Fredinthegrass says:

    We are seven months from an election but we still need leadership and government.
    I hope the government doesn’t take their eye of the ball in the next few months.

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  5. Inventory2 says:

    Goff will be counting his lucky stars that Parliament is in recess this week. But when over 20% of his caucus faces the prospect of unemployment post 26 November, the pressure is going to be ramped up. I’d suggest that it is not the front bench that Goff should be worried about.

    http://keepingstock.blogspot.com/2011/04/where-to-now-for-labour.html

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