iPredict shows gains for National and the Green Party and a loss of support for Labour after their leaders’ state of the nation speeches:
This week’s snapshot from New Zealand’s prediction market, iPredict, suggests the National and Green parties both gained from their leaders’ “state of the nation” speeches last week, while the Labour Party went backwards.
National’s forecast share of the party vote has risen to 45.9% (from 45.6% last week), the Greens are up to 8.0% (from 7.5% last week) while Labour is down to 30.5% (from 32.0% last week).
John Key would be able to continue as Prime Minister with the support of one of the Act, UnitedFuture or the Maori Party. The probability of a new left-wing party has risen.
A snapshot of a prediction market is not a scientific survey. Where a few people are putting their money today won’t necessarily translate into where many more people put their ticks at the election which is still more than nine months away.
That said, the idea of a new left-wing party has gained more traction.
Talk of a new Left-wing party is gathering steam, with veteran activist Sue Bradford confirming behind-the-scenes discussions and revealing she would consider leading it if asked.
Kiwiblog points out this could pose challenges for National and Labour.
Dim Post makes the interesting observation it could also pose problems for the Green by taking away left wing support.
One of the Greens’ weaknesses has been their environmental foundations have often been buried beneath extreme left social and economic goals.
Had it been moderate on these issues it would have been in a position of great strength, sitting in the middle able to give support to National or Labour. But its radical position has kept it on the left and out of government.
The ipredict snapshot hasn’t recognised the launch of a new left wing party could threaten the Greens – yet.