Only one poll counts but …

Of course there’s only one poll that counts and that’s the one held on election day.

But count or not,  last night’s One News Colmar Brunton poll provides a positive finish to the year for National.

Christmas has come early for National, which ends the year polling more than 20 points ahead of Labour.

But there’s no sign of cheer for Phil Goff with the latest ONE News Colmar Brunton poll showing him nearly 50 points behind John Key in the preferred Prime Minister stakes.

National streets ahead in final ONE News poll for 2010 (Source: ONE News)

6 Responses to Only one poll counts but …

  1. Cadwallader says:

    This is interesting, plus, the erosion of support for the Greens is nothing short of a glorious Christmas gift to NZ.

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  2. bobux says:

    Cad

    Hate to burst your bubble, but one-off changes in any of the minor parties are more likely to be statistical ‘noise’ rather than a real effect. If your support is close to the poll’s margin of error, a handful of individual respondents can make all the difference.

    I will be interesting to watch this over time. It doesn’t seem to me that the new Green leadership has developed much of a profile, or are closely associated with things environmental.

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  3. Farmer Baby Boomer says:

    One the Greens problems is that all Parties (apart from ACT) are pushing that JUNK science that is Man made Climate Change. So it is difficult for them to differentiate themselves on the issue of the day in the environmental area.
    They need to start thinking about other issues in that area such as GE/GMO’s. This could well become an issue as Free Trade discussions with the US proceed.
    In country areas the Greens would get more support on the GM issue than on the ETS.
    Of course,while it is one thing to get support on a single issue, it would be a bigger challenge to get that support in the polling booth.

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  4. JC says:

    Thats the first poll I’ve seen with Greens below the line.. which might indicate PiKe River tragedy spillover.

    JC

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  5. david winter says:


    Cad

    Hate to burst your bubble, but one-off changes in any of the minor parties are more likely to be statistical ‘noise’ rather than a real effect.

    Had to be that guy Bobux, esp. since I a luke warm Greens supporter, but that’s no quite right.

    The MoE gets much smaller as you estimate small numbers. If you calculate the MoE for an estimate of 4.5% and a sample of 1000 is around 1%. The probability of the drop (7% – 4.5%) happening by chance is about 0.5%. Of course, it’s very possible that the sample CB took was biased in some way.

    I know that might seem terribly pedantic, but it’s a myth that gets thrown around a lot and I couldn’t help but point out that it’s not true.

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  6. Cadwallader says:

    I believe that generally the Greens get higher poll results before an election than they actually achieve on the day. If this phenomenon persists the Greens are becoming extinct. They’re clearly not a protected species…whew!

    Like

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