iPredict is launching new stocks on which party leaders will make it through to the election.
It would take a disaster, natural or otherwise, to remove John Key from the leadership of the National Party in the next 12 months.
The chances of Peter Dunne giving up his place are also tiny because when he goes so does the party. The leadership of the Greens is unlikely to change before the election and only if Tariana Turia decides to retire is it likely that the Maori Party would have a change at the top.
Rodney Hide isn’t quite as secure but probably wouldn’t face a challenge unless it looks probable he’d lose the seat of Epsom which is what gives Act its seats in parliament.
That leaves Labour. Phil Goff and his party aren’t making any traction. The question isn’t will he go, but when?
Will any challengers have the appetite for the poisoned chalice which is what leadership of a party in its first term in opposition after three terms in power almost inevitably is? Or will they leave him to lose the election and take over when he falls on his sword afterwards?