Turning red to blue a big ask

A win for National candidate Hekia Parata in Mana today would be like Labour winning Bay of Plenty.

That commentators are even contemplating a loss for Labour is a very good reflection on Hekia and the campaign she and the party have run.

Labour started on the wrong foot by selecting a candidate supported by HQ and unions rather than the electorate. The late entry of Matt McCarten which gives another focus for disaffected left voters hasn’t helped.

If Hekia did win, a strange twist of MMP would give National another MP in parliament on the list to replace her and Labour would end an MP down by losing an electorate.

I’m not predicting that, even with a terrific candidate and a faultless campaign, turning a deep red seat to blue is a big ask. But  whatever happens today, Hekia can’t lose – even if she doesn’t take the seat she’s rattled the opposition and anyone who can do that in the heat of a by-election is a winner.

9 Responses to Turning red to blue a big ask

  1. Pointer2 says:

    You never know…Napier, Tukituki and Aoraki, all with 6,000+ Labour majorities from 2002 were won by National candidates in 2005. Different scenarios between General and By elections, but still.


  2. homepaddock says:

    Like Mana the seats you mention had very good candidates running very strong campaigns. But they were won from a government declining in popularity.

    I don’t think a government MP has ever taken a seat from the opposition in a by-election – but that doesn’t mean it can’t be done.


  3. robertguyton says:

    As with Len Brown in Auckland and Celia Wade-Brown in Wellington the winner in the Mana electorate will reflect New Zealanders’ true feelings toward the National Government.


  4. Sally says:

    The state of play in NZ politics sadly is there is not much to choose from either party. The present National government and Labour opposition only have their minds set on the next election. They disregard (or do not understand) the laws of fiduciary control and show very little skill and competence in managing the people’s interests.


  5. Neil Harvey says:

    Then Sally who do you vote for. Genghis Khan isn’t standing and ACT seems to be slipping into mediocrity and irrelevance.
    Could you explain what you mean by fiduciary control?
    Remember also, your views are quite different to most of the population.Perhaps they think for the total society not just a narrow and angry group
    Perhaps you could start a Rural Ratepayers party, a shame you couldn’t stand in “rural” Porirua.Good hunting Sally for that sexy perfect party.


  6. Tired Farmer says:

    A person of your experence would probably agree that the old adage “Keep the masses occupied with sport, sex and alcohol and Governments can do what they like.

    Probably applies to Local Govt as well.

    Should be an interesting Nats. Xmas party at Gore next


  7. Angus says:

    Turning red into blue can hardly be a big deal when National, particularly Key, has turned blue into red albeit creating confusion, wide spread loathing of national and a stalled economy. Neil Harvey has highlighted the confusion national with its control freak policies has caused outside of Auckland, in the provinces.National who once represented the productive base, appears only concerned with massaging Urban Academic Auckland sensibilities. Can Neil Harvey inform us who will represent good grass roots NZ until national are again driven by common sense, small govt, and most importantly, re-aligning themselves with their own largely forgotten, (unknown) guiding principles?
    Another question. When will national turn red ink into black? That will be the biggest question of all.
    Are they up to it? Anyone care to make a prediction?


  8. Sally says:

    These comments, from a member of the executive of the Gore National Party, will be sending alarm bells out to any thinking person.

    “Remember also, your views are quite different to most of the population. Perhaps they think for the total society not just a narrow and angry group.”

    Harvey astoundingly does not realise that democracy is not guaranteed. Democracy is a very fragile thing, and has to be watched.

    I think it was Thomas Jefferson who said words like “The price of democracy is eternal vigilance.”

    When the majority go to sleep and are too lazy to keep an eye on the state (and Neil has alluded that this has occurred) the State will assume more and more powers over its people.

    Sadly this power craze has been creeping on us for the last 20 or so years gaining in momentum with the PM thumbing his nose at the anti-smacking referendum, introducing the damaging ETS tax and the recent submissions to the Foreshore & Seabed Bill being totally ignored.

    Neil –Government is not the solution, it is the problem


  9. Richard says:

    Ele, If Hekia wins, let us take pride that her political skills comes from her Ngai Tahu (South Island] heritage- her great-great-great grandfather, Tame Parata, a very influential politician in his day


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