It’s not impossible for Labour to win the next election with Phil Goff as leader.
What those of us in the blue ranged of the spectrum would regard as a disaster and those in the red range might call a miracle, could happen. But it is unlikely.
That begs the questions: If Labour can’t win with Goff as leader, could it win with anyone else in that very hot seat?
The Australian Labor Party is ahead in the polls after a change of leader, but it wasn’t battling the 20 point gap with Labour does here.
That gap could narrow but it is unlikely to close altogether – with or without a different leader.
Even Labour insiders are admitting that. Trevor Mallard said on Focus on Politics last night (starting at 6:16):
No-one in caucus that I know thinks that anyone could do a better job than Phil has done. I think many of us know it’s going to be hard to win the next election. But it’s possible and Phil is the person who can do that and no-one else can.
When a senior MP says that Labour’s unlikely to win and if Goff can’t lead Labour to an election victory no-one else it’s hardly likely to inspire voter confidence in the party regardless of whoever is leading it next year.