Melbourne Cup sweepstake

Etheral, trained by Shiela Luxton, won the Melbourne Cup in 2001.

No New Zealand horse has won since then which is as good excuse as any to pick one for today.

The field for the race is:

No
 
Horse
 
Trainer
 
Jockey
 
Barrier
 
Weight
 
1   VIEWED   Bart Cummings   Brad Rawiller   9   58.0  
2   C’EST LA GUERRE (NZ)   John Sadler   Nicholas Hall   7   55.5  
3   FIUMICINO (NZ)   Michael, Wayne & John Hawkes   Steven King   24   55.5  
4   MASTER O’REILLY (NZ)   Danny O’Brien   Vlad Duric   16   55.0  
5   MOURILYAN (IRE)   Herman Brown   Glyn Schofield   14   54.5  
6   ROMAN EMPEROR (NZ)   Bart Cummings   Hugh Bowman   15   54.0  
7   ISTA KAREEM (NZ)   Colin Little   Luke Nolen   23   53.5  
8   CRIME SCENE (IRE)   Saeed Bin Suroor   Kerrin McEvoy   11   53.0  
9   MUNSEF (GB)   Ian Williams   Zac Purton   5   53.0  
10   ZAVITE (NZ)   Anthony Cummings   Mark Zahra   3   53.0  
11   ALCOPOP   Jake Stephens   Dom Tourneur   12   52.5  
12   HARRIS TWEED (NZ)   Murray & Bjorn Baker   Craig Newitt   20   52.5  
13   KIBBUTZ (NZ)   Jarrod McLean   Chris Symons   8   52.5  
14   NEWPORT   Paul Perry   Peter Wells   18   52.5  
15   WARRINGAH (GB)   Chris Waller   Damien Oliver   17   52.5  
16   GALLIONS REACH (NZ)   Richard Yuill   Dwayne Dunn   6   52.0  
17   SPIN AROUND   Steven Cooper   Mark Du Plessis   4   52.0  
18   BASALTICO (IRE)   Luca Cumani   Danny Nikolic   10   51.5  
19   CAPECOVER (NZ)   Alexander R Fieldes   Noel Harris   19   51.5  
20   DAFFODIL (NZ)   Kevin Gray   Chris Munce   21   51.5  
21   SHOCKING   Mark Kavanagh   Corey Brown   22   51.0  
22   ALLEZ WONDER   Bart Cummings   Michelle Payne   13   50.5  
23   CHANGINGOFTHEGUARD (IRE)   David Hayes   Glen Boss   1   50.5  
24   LEICA DING   Darren Weir   Craig Williams   2   50.5  

If I knew what colours the jockeys would be wearing I’d base my bet on that.

Since I don’t, I’m using a foolproof system based on the birth dates of my family multiplied by the sum of the numerical values ascribed to each letter of the horse’s name, divided by 11 (the number of NZ horses running) measured against the attractiveness of the name.

The result – I’m backing Daffodil to win with Harris Tweed and C’est La Guerre for a place.

5 Responses to Melbourne Cup sweepstake

  1. pdm says:

    Hell it must have taken you a long time to work through that convoluted formula HP. There is however a flaw as there are I think only 4 true New Zaland horses running – Daffodil, Harris Tweed, Capecover and Spin Around the other seven will be New Zealand bred.

    What impact does that info have on your calculations?

    Like

  2. homepaddock says:

    “What impact does that info have on your calculations?”

    It forces me to confess I made the picks because I liked the names.

    But if a horse wins, any connection with this country, no matter how tenuous, will enable us to claim it as one of ours.

    Like

  3. pdm says:

    Your last sentence is bang an HP – the breeding industry will benefit from any New Zealand bred winner.

    As far as the four NZ horses are concerned someone might find these comments helpful or of interest others may want to sue me or hang me on Wednesday.

    Daffodil – good form up to 2,400 metres. A hard ask for a 4yr old mare. Why is Tinsley not riding. Not in my four

    Harris Tweed – I had not heard of it until yesterday. From a top stable with a top rider on board so must have something to recommend it but, not in my four.

    Capecover – may be the best New Zealander with `handbrake’ Harris up. Alexander Field is a well known identity in Nz racing and will be running on at the finish. Will include in my 4.

    Spin Around – The only NZer with two mile form. Good draw and should get a good run with Mark du Plessis up. Being a 9yr old means he is not in my four but is a big danger.

    My Four:

    Viewed, Master O’Reilly, Roman Emporer and Capecover.

    Like

  4. pdm says:

    While placing my bets, isn’t the internet a great service, I decided to include Spin Around so my 4 horse boxed quinella and % trifecta became 5 horse combinations.

    I have broken my rule of not backing horses over 7yr old in open races – will it be worth it?

    Like

  5. Richard says:

    I have a 100% record. First at boarding school where I won the sweepstake – cannot remember the name. Second in the UK, approx 30 years ago – Maori Chief- I think. Cannot reveal my formula up it involves an empty room names pinned at random to the walls a dart and a blindfold –have said too much

    Like

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