3rd debate

November 5, 2008

A thought before the debate starts: why have it today which is towards the end of Tuesday November 4th – election day  – in the USA and Wednesday November 5th – Guy Fawkes day –  here?

Update # 1: Mark Sainsbury’s tie is purple which is what you get if you mix blue and red.

Both John Key and Helen Clark are diplomatic and positive about Obama’s success.

Update #2: Key gets a point for getting across the message Labour knew about the deficits long before the PREFU and still wants a blank cheque while National has known about the economic situation for a shorter time but all policies are costed.

Updtae # 3: Clark has the climate change rhetoric, Key is more realistic.

Update # 4:  Breaking for ads just as discussion is warming up is frustrating.

Update # 5: What’s normal for one isn’t necessarily normal for everyone. Clark, in answering a question about tobacco, said she’d had a puff as a teenager as everyone does. I didn’t several of my friends didn’t and Key said he didn’t either.

Update # 6: When the discussion got on to pot Clark repeated what she’d said to Paul Holmes,” I was a student in the 60s.” I take it that means yes. Auckland in the 60s was obviously different from Otago in the 70s where and when I was a student.

Update # 7: Have they ever broken the law? Key drove his car on a carless day. Clark admitted to a couple of speeding tickets. No mention of art fraud or pledge cards.

Update # 8: Clark really struggled to answer the question about changing her mind. Key explained it well and gave two examples – Kiwibank and Maori TV.

Update # 9: Key gets a point for explaining that it’s wealthy countries which do better with the environment.

Update # 10: Key got a laugh (I think the only one of the evening) for the story about the little boy who said he knew who he was – Helen Clark’s boyfriend.

Update # 11: Final comment: Clark has a plan – but no costs and still wants that blank cheque. It was all about the government. Key spoke from the heart and about you eg . . . it will show that you care about . . .

She had rehearsed lines.  He wasn’t quite word perfect but had passion and conviction . Should I point out in case you hadn’t noticed that I’m a wee bit biased? 🙂


Obama wins

November 5, 2008

Barack Obama is the 44th  president of the USA.

Won’t it be a great day when race, gender or any of the things which make us different aren’t an important part in the news of such achievements?


Pretty but unscientific

November 5, 2008

Jimungo has been running an weekly pulse of the nation poll.

Absolutely nothing can be read into the results which aren’t scientific:

 Visit Pulse of the Nation

Here we have it: the final Virtual Election of the Pulse of the Nation weekly series. This is the last Virtual Election before the real New Zealand General Election happens this Saturday 8 November.

The only election that counts is the one this Saturday at polling places across the country. The mood of the country between 9am when polls open and 7pm when they close will determine the make-up of our next parliament.

Here at Jimungo, here’s how we saw the mood swinging over the last week:

A

ACT

6.9%

UP 0.7

G

Green

6.1%

UP 1.1

L

Labour

23.2%

DOWN 1.4

M

Māori

4%

UP 0.8

N

National

50.8%

UP 0.2

NZ

NZ First

3.1%

DOWN 1.5

P

Progressive

0.9%

UP 0.3

U

United Future

1.7%

UP 0.4

O

Other

3.3%

UP 0.2


Spot the difference

November 5, 2008

National has costed policy and a 100 day action plan  which outlines its priorities.

Labour wants us to write them a blank cheque for them to spend on their December mini budget.


Dean leads ST poll of Waitaki

November 5, 2008

National’s Otago MP and Waitaki candidate  Jacqui Dean is ahead in a Southland Times poll of the Waitaki Electorate.

In the same poll conducted by The Southland Times leading up to the 2005 election, Mrs Dean led sitting Otago MP David Parker by 8 percentage points and went on to win the then Otago seat by 5.5 per cent, a margin of almost 2000 votes – righting a “blip” from the 2002 election when Mr Parker won the traditionally National electorate.

The Otago electorate no longer exists, with Central Otago and Wanaka now included in the Waitaki electorate.

It now covers 34,888 sqaure kilometres taking in all of Central Otago, Waitaki, Waimate and Mackenzie Districts with bits of the Timaru and Queenstown Lakes Districts.

Activity and publicity so far indicate Jacqui is the only candidate actively seeking both the electorate and party vote and that is reflected in the poll.

In this year’s poll, Mrs Dean leads by 14 percentage points, with 42 per cent of support, compared with 28 per cent support for Mr Parker. Third highest poller was Green Party candidate Oliver Briggs on 2.3 per cent support.

But with a quarter of voters polled still undecided Mr Parker could still take the seat if they swung his way.

Results were closer in the party vote, with 37.7 per cent of voters supporting National, and 31.7 per cent Labour. Act was on 2 per cent and New Zealand First on 1.3 per cent support.

In the 2005 election, National won the party vote in the Otago electorate by 5 per cent over Labour.

A popular MP will always win more support than his or her party because some people will split their votes, giving one to the MP but not giving the second tick to her/his party.

So while I’d expect Jacqui’s popularity to transcend party loyalty I think both she and National will get more support on Satruday than this poll indicates.

It is not a deep blue electorate but 37.7% is about 10 points below the average  support for National in nationwide polls and it would be unusual if Waitaki was that different from the rest of the country.


Who stole it?

November 5, 2008

A rural businessman has been driving round with a bumper sticker saying: Ditch the Bitch but someone’s stolen it.

Who was it?

a) An animal rights activist who was concerned about the welfare of a dog?

b) Someone who saw another meaning and objected to it?

c) Someone who saw another meaning and wanted to spread the word her/himself?

d) The Electoral Commission who saw another meaning and decided it was an unauthorised political statement?


Navigating the rapids

November 5, 2008

rapids


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