MMP muddies polling waters

Colin James says National’s lead in the polls isn’t as decisive as it looks:

Rolling average of 4 most recent polls.

Rolling average of 4 most recent polls.

In a two horse race National is well ahead but if the Maori Party wins more seats than its part vote entitles it too there could be an overhang of three seats.

Jim Anderton and Peter Dunne might add to that by gaining fewer party votes than their seats entitle them to, too.

The party with the most votes usually forms the government under MMP but if 62 seats or more, rather than 61, is needed for a majority that makes it more difficult.

While the gap between National and Labour could tighten the odds are against National falling behind Labour. However, with the overhang it’s possible that National, Act and United Future couldn’t muster the 63 seats needed to get a majority which puts the Maori Party in a position of great power.

And if it goes left rather than right we could end up with a six headed monster with Labour, Greens, Maori Party, NZ First, United and Progressive.

I don’t want to think about what that would do to the country.

3 Responses to MMP muddies polling waters

  1. Mr Gronk says:

    You can probably count NZ First out of your multi-headed hydra. Which would simplify the beast, but probably move it further to the left. Also, in what meaningful sense is Progressive different to Labour, other than Jim Anderton not being invited to caucus meetings?

    I thought United and the Greens have practically refused to work together in the past. It could be different this time given a massive exodus to the Kiwi Party and other places, but I don’t think there’s that much love lost between them even now.

    If the Nats + ACT + UF don’t get a working majority in their own right, and the Maori Party decides to support Labour, I’d imagine a Lab+Progressive+Greens coalition with case-by-case support from the Maori Party and possibly UF. I’d also think it would not last very long. Vote of no confidence within the first 12 months? Either that, or a Government that survives three years by dint of doing absolutely nothing of any note. Except for possibly salting “principles of the Treaty” throughout the statute books.

    Also, I don’t suppose you created the image of the debating chamber you’ve got there. But it shows Labour with 45 seats and National with 61 (contra the list down the side). Wishful thinking on the part of the creator? In any case, showing a hung Parliament as it does, it wasn’t helpful to a visual person such as myself.


  2. homepaddock says:

    Mr Gronk – the visual came from the Herald (to which I’ve linked) – and you’re right it doesn’t match the numbers down the side.


  3. Mr Gronk says:

    As I realised as soon as I’d posted my comment. :S


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