Bets back polls

The punters, like the polls, are backing an election win for National.

The Australian bookmaker Centrebet is paying just $1.15 for John Key to be Prime Minsiter and $5 for Helen Clark to retain power and the odds have been changing in Key’s favour.

Centrebet is offering $A1.15 for a Key victory, which has steadily shortened from $A1.47 since betting opened in February, while Clark’s odds have lengthened from her opening price of $A2.60.

Centrebet’s political analyst Neil Evans said 90% of the close to $A200,000 ($224,500) bet on the race had been on a Key victory.

“It’s been one-way momentum,” he said. “Clark would have to pull a rabbit out of a hat, and I can’t see that rabbit coming at all. The people backing her are speculative punters, just because she’s out to a big price. But the people that are there to win, and win only, are betting National.”

The largest bet had been placed by an Auckland man a fortnight ago $A47,000 on a National victory at $A1.22, from which the punter stands to reap about $A10,000 profit.

“That’s a very, very big bet from a Kiwi with an Australian bookmaker and that’s as good a statement as you’ll get that New Zealand’s headed for a change of government.

. . . But Labour supporters can take heart that Centrebet got it wrong last time.

The day before the 2005 election, the bookmaker was offering $A1.65 on a Don Brash win, compared with $A2.10 for Clark.

Whether you’re polling or gambling you can monitor and measure the trends but there can still be upsets on the day, especially under MMP which isn’t a two horse race .

One Response to Bets back polls

  1. Paul Walker says:

    What about NZ’s iPredict, it has a 76% chance of a National PM and a 24% chance of a Labour PM.

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