The punters, like the polls, are backing an election win for National.
Centrebet is offering $A1.15 for a Key victory, which has steadily shortened from $A1.47 since betting opened in February, while Clark’s odds have lengthened from her opening price of $A2.60.
Centrebet’s political analyst Neil Evans said 90% of the close to $A200,000 ($224,500) bet on the race had been on a Key victory.
“It’s been one-way momentum,” he said. “Clark would have to pull a rabbit out of a hat, and I can’t see that rabbit coming at all. The people backing her are speculative punters, just because she’s out to a big price. But the people that are there to win, and win only, are betting National.”
The largest bet had been placed by an Auckland man a fortnight ago $A47,000 on a National victory at $A1.22, from which the punter stands to reap about $A10,000 profit.
“That’s a very, very big bet from a Kiwi with an Australian bookmaker and that’s as good a statement as you’ll get that New Zealand’s headed for a change of government.
. . . But Labour supporters can take heart that Centrebet got it wrong last time.
The day before the 2005 election, the bookmaker was offering $A1.65 on a Don Brash win, compared with $A2.10 for Clark.
Whether you’re polling or gambling you can monitor and measure the trends but there can still be upsets on the day, especially under MMP which isn’t a two horse race .