It’s only one poll

The latest Roy Morgan poll  shows a significant narrowing of the gap between National and Labour.

National is now at 44% support (down 3.5) and Labour is up 4 to 38%.

There is some comfort in the knowledge that New Zealand First has only 2.5% support, down 4 points to the lowest they’e been for a year.

The Green Party got 8%  support (up 0.5), Maori Party 3.5% (up 1.5), ACT NZ 1.5%  (unchanged), United Future 1% (up 1) and others 1% (up 0.5).

It’s only one poll and the gap was going to tighten. But why it has when John Key showed he had both gumption and principles when he ruled Peters out of a National-led government; and while Helen Clark is bound tight to Peters; Labour is bulldozing through the Emissions Trading Scheme legislation; the economy is in recession and the party has still to announce any policy defies logic.

Like Fairfacts Media over at No Minister I’m gobsmacked.

[Update: Maybe we can take some hope from No Right Turn who reports on a poll which shows the Christian Heritage party which disbanded in 2006 got more support (.4%) than the Alliance and United.]

3 Responses to It’s only one poll

  1. Inventory2 says:

    I think the answer lies in the timing HP; this poll was conducted between the 18th and the 31st. Key kneecapped Peters on the 27th; Clark made her admission that she’d known on the 28th; Winston stood down on the 29th – all right at the back-end of the polling period. I would be very surprised if there’s not a bounce-back in the next Morgan poll.

  2. macdoctor01 says:

    Agreed I2. I suspect this is more of a delayed twitch from the tape saga.

    However, the evil imp in me would almost like to see labour win a “historic” 4th term with a grand, unwieldy coalition. With the economy on the slide and the ETS about to be unleashed on us, the country will look like a complete dog’s breakfast after 3 more years of socialism (or less, if the coalition fall apart). Labour would then be consigned to the sin bin in much the same way National was in 1999. I expect them to be there a very long time.

  3. Liam O'Gorman says:

    John Key with gumption and principle – what a dreamer you are.
    Key’s distancing from Peters is machavellian- purely political. If the man and his party had principles, they would have come clean about their (hidden) agenda by now

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