The Herald poll of polls shows NZ First has an average of 3.6% support. At a similar time in the 2005 election cycle the party was registering 9 to 10 per cent.
Whether the party can clear the 5 per cent party vote hurdle it needs to stay in Parliament looks to be touch and go, even with a better timed campaign than the premature peak in 2005.
Interesting that there’s no mention of the possiblity of Winston Peters winning Tauranga.
The Greens’ average since the 2005 election has only once dipped below 5 per cent and then by only 0.1 per cent. Their latest four-poll average is 5.9 per cent.
The Maori Party, which draws its strength from the electorate vote in the Maori seats, does not need to clear 5 per cent on the party vote. In 2005, it won one more seat than its party vote entitled it to. That “overhang” seat lifted Parliament’s total from 120 to 121 MPs.
That was on 2.1 per cent of the party vote, exactly the latest poll of polls average. If it adds to its haul of Maori seats this election, its “overhang” would likely rise.
Even at 3 per cent of the party vote, it would get two “overhangs” if it won six Maori electorate seats.
Act’s and United Future’s most recent poll-of-poll averages have been 0.9 per cent and 0.4 per cent respectively. They will stay in Parliament if their leaders hold their electorate seats. Jim Anderton is at 0.1 per cent – a level which would make him an “overhang” if he holds Wigram.
Isn’t it time someone told him a one-man band is not a party?
The gap between the major parties has narrowed slightly since the last poll of polls published on July 1. National is down from 53.9 % to 51.6%, and Labour up from 30.5% to 34%.
Homepaddock 