The latest Roy Morgan Poll show an increase in support for both National at 52% and Labour at 31% – both up .5. But a new Fairfax Media- Neilson poll shows National down 3 to 51% and Labour up 5 to 35%.
A rolling average of polls has had National about 20 points ahead of Labour for months and the Fairfax poll is the smallest gap since last year.
John Key’s rating as preferred PM dropped from 43% to 39% and Helen Clark’s rose from 30 to 32.
I am not surprised the gap has tightened but I am surprised it has done so now when the truckers’ protest gained so much support which suggested a high proportion of anti-government sentiment; and when we’re facing recession.
Labour can’t be blamed for external factors including the price of oil, but had they not squandered the good times we’ve been experiencing the country would be better positioned to weather the bad.
The Morgan poll results were:
National Party support at 52% (up 0.5%) clearly ahead of the Labour Party 31% (up 0.5%), if an election were held now the National Party would win. Support for the Greens was 7.5% (down 0.5%), NZ First 6.5% (up 2.5% to its highest level since September 2006), Maori Party 1% (down 1.5%), United Future 1% (unchanged) and ACT NZ 0.5% (down 1.5%).
If ever there was a case for requiring people to take a comprehension test before they vote, it’s in that increase for NZ First 🙂
The Fairfax poll result in percentages: National 51 (54 last month) Labour 35 (30) Green 5 (7) NZ First 4 (3) Maori Party 2 (2) Act 1 (1) United Future 0 (1).
Preferred PM: John Key 39 (43) Helen Clark 35 (30) Winston Peters 3 (2).
The trend is more important than a single poll and this will not spook National. But it will hearten Labour and if Clark thinks her attacks on Key have been working we can expect them to not only continue but worsen.
Homepaddock 
hp: NZ First’s policies are more like those of the old National Party before the neo-liberals captured it. The old National Party used to be the natural party of government. One could suggest that many who vote for the National Party today still think they are voting that older version, which in reality no longer exists under the blue hue. Perhaps they are the ones needing the comprehension test. Of course with so little substantive policy for them to examine, the test likely be held. Then there is the OTHER National party policy that corporate backers are getting and the public isn’t: like insurance (again).
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TS – opening ACC to competition was National policy in the past two elections, no-one is hiding anything there.
National doesn’t need to announce much policy yet – it’s in opposition, it’s job is to oppose the government. Once the election is called, policy will be announced in plenty of time for people to decide whether that is what they want to vote for.
NZ First’s policies eg opposition to foreign investment, are based on ignorance and would do great harm to NZ.
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