Don’t vote for chaos

September 19, 2014

The choice is clear: continuing stable government that’s working for New Zealand and New Zealanders or chaos:

 

If you’re not already convinced what any government beholden to Winston Peters would be like, listen to Guyon Espiner (at 7:18) attempting to get a straight answer from him.

New Zealand First is likely to get at least 5% of the vote. Labour’s weakness would give him strength.

The higher National’s party vote is, the stronger its negotiating position will be and the more stable the government will be.


Moment of strewth sinks IMP?

September 19, 2014

Kim Dotcom’s moment of truth turned into a moment of strewth, is that all there is?

Rather than sinking Prime Minister and the National Party as he had hoped, the Herald DigiPoll showed it did the opposite:

The Kim Dotcom-inspired event in Auckland’s Town Hall that was supposed to end John Key’s career gave the National Party an immediate bounce in support this week, according to polling for the last Herald DigiPoll survey.

With 60 per cent of the poll done by Monday night, when the event happened, National was polling at 47.8 per cent, down on last week, said DigiPoll general manager Nandan Modak. From Tuesday it jumped to 49.1 per cent.

A similar trend was seen in the preferred Prime Minister polling. Before Monday, Mr Key was polling at 63.4 per cent. From Tuesday it jumped to 66.4 per cent.

Mr Key who has led a minority National Government for six years is seeking a third term in tomorrow’s election against a Labour Party that has been led for only a year by David Cunliffe.

Mr Key told the Herald last night the results on Saturday “may well prove that a campaign led by Kim Dotcom based mostly on revenge will serve to only reduce the likelihood of a change of Government”.

While the moment of strewth helped National, it harmed Dotcom’s puppet party and might even be enough to sink it:

Today’s poll also has the internet-Mana strategic alliance funded by Mr Dotcom sinking. It would get no extra MPs into Parliament on the coat-tails of Mana leader Hone Harawira keeping his Te Tai Tokerau seat – and even that is looking shaky.

Mr Dotcom has spent $4 million on setting up the party and funding the campaign.

The poll has the Conservatives on 3.3 per cent, and would not be in Parliament. It has yet to register over the 5 per cent threshold on any major political poll this election.

Today’s poll has National on 48.2 per cent, down a little from last week when the seven-day polling is totalled.. .

This is only one poll and it shows the race is still tight.

The Stuff/Ipsos shows an even tighter race:

Today’s Stuff.co.nz/Ipsos poll is almost a photo finish of the 2011 election result, which delivered a National government with a slender majority despite John Key’s near record popularity.

Click here to see full results

On today’s numbers, National is as popular as ever and would be back in business at the Beehive on Monday with a government that looks almost exactly like the last one.

But a turbulent few weeks on the campaign trail have made the result less certain and the electorate more volatile. The poll registers a big swing against National which, if carried through to tomorrow, could make the race much tighter.

So too could any stumble by John Key’s allies in the Maori seats or Ohariu, which would see the Maori Party and Peter Dunne out of Parliament.

The bad news for Labour is that the swing has mostly benefited NZ First and Colin Craig’s Conservatives, who have been jockeying for position in the Centre.

National blames that on strategic voting by its supporters wanting to get Conservatives over the line to give National coalition options. But NZ First may be just as likely picking up disaffected Labour voters. . .

This poll shows National on 47.7%; Labour on 26.1%; the Green Party on 12%; New Zealand First on 6.6%; Conservative party on 4.5% and Internet Mana on just .9%.

If this level of support carries through to the election we could still have a strong, stable National-led government.

But even a small swing away from National could leave us saddled with a weak Labour-led government cobbled together with the support of the Green and New Zealand First parties and whoever manages to get across the line with Internet Mana.

National has never taken the election result for granted and these polls will ensure that candidates and volunteers the length and breadth of the country will be continuing to work hard to ensure that when the polls close tomorrow they’ve done all they can to convince enough voters of the importance of keeping the government that’s working for New Zealand.

Whether that’s enough, won’t be known until the counting’s done.


Win for Cunliffe, win for Dotcom

September 17, 2014

Kim Dotcom threatened to bring down John Key and National.

His moment of truth turned into a moment of strewth, is that all there is?

The email on which he was depending to prove John Key a liar is a fake.

That ought to be the end of it, but it won’t be if Labour is in a position to form a government because in spite of Cunliffe’s yeah-nahing about working with Dotcom’s puppets in Internet Mana, he would if it meant he could be Prime Minister.

He has a chance to ensure IMP doesn’t get anywhere by firmly ruling out any post-election deal with it.

Instead of this he’s wishy-washy:

. . . Mr Cunliffe says he’s not particularly concerned if Mr Harawira loses and Labour is without a potential support partner.

Not particularly concerned? If he had the best interests of New Zealand and New Zealanders at heart he would be absolutely unequivocal that he’d be delighted if that happened.

“I want to see Kelvin Davis as the MP for Te Tai Tokerau,” he told reporters in Hamilton.

Mr Cunliffe has ruled Internet Mana out of a Labour-led government, but the door is still open for a confidence and supply agreement.

If he really wanted to see Davis as the MP for Te Tai Tokerau he’d make it quite clear that he was ruling IMP out completely.

He’s not prepared to do that which means a vote for Labour would also be a vote for Dotcom pulling the strings of MPs supporting it in government.

A win for Cunliffe would be a win for Dotcom.

The only way to rule out Dotcom is to rule out a Labour-led government.

The only way to do that is to give your party vote to National.

 


25ish + 7ish = too few

September 16, 2014

Winston Peters is mulling over a Labour New Zealand First coalition:

New Zealand First leader Winston Peters said today that voters should consider a Labour-New Zealand First as a potential alternative Government, not Labour and Greens, in what is the most definitive statement from him yet on post-election options.

That suggests that would keep the Green Party away from the cabinet table in any Labour-Led Government as he did in 2005.

He expressed respect today for both Labour’s finance spokesman David Parker and for Finance Minister Bill English and said: “I see both of them as capable of being Ministers of Finance.”

“This is not indicating a choice,” he said “but the media seem to have overlooked one option entirely, a Labour-New Zealand First combination on coalition or confidence and supply.”

In Colin James’ latest poll of polls Labour had 25.2% support and NZ First had 7.1%

That comes to only 32.3% which is well short of the 50% plus one seat needed for a majority.

It could of course try to be a minority government but that would require a lot of negotiating to get any legislation passed and the other parties who are hoping to be in government wouldn’t necessarily be feeling generous.

In 2005, Helen Clark led a minority Government with the support of New Zealand First, United Future, and the Greens on confidence and supply but at the behest of Mr Peters, restricted ministerial posts to only himself and Peter Dunne of United Future. . .

Lest we forget, that’s the government that spent wildly and put the country into recession before the rest of the world.

Many NZ First supporters would prefer the party went left rather than right so all Peters is doing is playing to the gallery.


NZ Power 3x more expensive

September 16, 2014

Labour’s numbers don’t add up for its power policy:

 

Dr Michael Dunn, engaged by the Taxpayers’ Union to provide the figures for the ‘Bribe-O-Meter’ election costing website, is questioning the Labour Party’s costing of it’s flagship “NZ Power” policy.

Dr Dunn says, “Labour’s claim that NZ Power will cost taxpayers’ $90 million per year is optimistic at best. A more realistic figure is $276 million.”

“As the Government continues to own majority stakes in many of New Zealand’s power companies, NZ Power would see the Government forego much of the income tax and after tax dividends it currently receives.”

“When these aspects are factored in, the NZ Power policy would not cost $178 million as Labour is claiming, but instead cost at least $828 million over three years.”

“The foregone revenue to the Crown is, we estimate, $276 million per year. This is significantly more than Labour’s average of $90 million.

“Labour assume that bringing down the cost of power will introduce offsetting economic benefits. But their assumptions are open to debate, and Labour do not appear to consider who benefits, the long term costs, and the cost to the private shareholders of power companies.”

Dr Dunn’s independent figures are reflected in the Taxpayers’ Union Bribe-O-Meter, which tallies this year’s election promises. The Bribe-O-Meter currently stands at $3,500 per household for Labour compared to $760 for National.

Jordan Williams, Executive Director of the Taxpayers’ Union says, “This isn’t some political hack calling into question Labour’s numbers. Dr Dunn led the team at IRD that costed revenue policy for 12 years. He has advised both National and Labour administrations.”

“The Bribe-O-Meter is to give transparency to the cost of politicians’ promises as we head into the general election.” . . .

A power policy costing us three times what Labour reckons on top of five new taxes and compulsory KiwiSaver with higher contributions all add up to a lot more money out of people’s pockets.

 


Gift tax by stealth

September 15, 2014

Labour yeah-nahed over whether or not capital gains tax would be due on the family home if it was sold by the beneficiaries of a will,  but would which make CGT a death tax by stealth.

It will also be a gift tax by stealth.

Baker & Associates latest AgLetter examines the tax and finds:

Gifting an asset will be considered a CGT event, except in the case of inheritance upon death. The person gifting will be liable for CGT based on the market value of the asset, and this will include farm property.
National removed gift duty because the amount raised didn’t justify the costs.
The major beneficiaries were accountants and lawyers and that would be the case should labour CGT be inflicted on us too.

Labour’s last stand peak spending

September 15, 2014

Labour announced its final policy yesterday and in doing so took the left to peak spending

The Labour Party have decided to go for broke and heap more spending commitments on the Left’s spending pile in a vain bid to turn around their flagging polling numbers five days out from the election, National Party Associate Finance spokesman Steven Joyce says.

“Their latest ‘idea’ today to create a new ‘investment fund’ from the dividends of state-owned enterprises is just another way of pre-committing money that has already been committed by Labour a few times over,” Mr Joyce says.

“Dividends received by the Government from state-owned enterprises are already being used to pay for public services like education and health and to pay down debt. They can’t just keep being spent again and again. On top of that, the so-called ‘strategic investment’ language is quite obviously code for spending money on experimental cleantech investments that have lost money the world over.

“When you strip it back, what Labour have come up with today is simply another $400 million in pre-committed spending – no more and no less. That takes their four year commitment to $19 billion, before you add on the Greens plan to spend at least another $12 billion, and Dotcom’s plan to spend tens of billions more.

“On top of that you have to add all the uncosted pledges of the Labour Party – to pay higher student support, to pay more to ACC claimants, to re-establish the ‘dole for artists’ scheme, and so on.

“This approach would push up interest rates for households and businesses and stall the economy – as we saw under the previous government six years ago when floating home mortgages were almost 11 per cent at the economy flat-lined.

“The Left’s appetite for looking like Father Christmas to the voting public has no limit.

“The only thing we can be absolutely sure of in regards to Labour, The Greens and Dotcom is that if they win next Saturday’s election we would very quickly become a much poorer New Zealand.”

Labour’s sovereign wealth fund is another of those policies which confirm the view it thinks governments are better spending other people’s money than they are.

The last six years have been harder than they would have been had the last Labour government not taxed and spent the country into recession before the global financial crisis.

We’re now on track to surplus and it’s National’s careful management that’s got us there.

The recovery and the social and economic dividends which depend on it would be short-lived should the government change.

 


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