Global food security and strong trade links key for NZ Ag

The world’s increasing focus on global food security and safety and New Zealand’s strong trade links will be key factors in the international competitiveness of New Zealand’s agriculture in 2013.

In its flagship Agriculture in Focus 2013 report – examining the outlook for New Zealand and Australian agriculture – specialist food and agribusiness bank Rabobank identifies key opportunities and challenges for the competitiveness of New Zealand agricultural commodities in the year ahead.

Overall, the report finds the outlook for New Zealand agri commodities remains generally robust, despite some ongoing challenges to competitiveness.

“Global supply and demand fundamentals indicate an increased reliance on exportable supplies from New Zealand in 2013, which should help bolster local prices, largely off-setting the currency drag (from the high dollar),” the report says.

However, the report cautions, maintaining competitiveness is vital in order to take full advantage of the opportunities.

“Enhancing the international competitiveness of New Zealand agribusiness is becoming increasingly challenging. Where possible, these challenges must be tackled in 2013 to mitigate the impacts of the elevated New Zealand dollar and to unlock the growing opportunities for the sector into the future,” it says.

Food security and safety

Chief among the opportunities for the New Zealand agricultural sector are those presented by the pressing global need to provide food security to rapidly-expanding and increasingly wealthy populations, particularly in developing Asian economies.

The report says New Zealand, like its near-neighbour Australia, is well placed to increase the volume of agricultural exports into the Asian region due to its competitive advantages, including superior product quality, developed trade linkages and geographic proximity.

“The issues of food security and food safety provide enormous opportunities for New Zealand and Australia’s agricultural sectors,” the report says. “Both countries have ample supply of high quality food and agricultural products, and comfortably sit on the doorstep of a fast-growing region.”

However, extracting and retaining maximum value for that production – along with maintaining and developing competitive advantages – will be key to ongoing growth in exports, says Rabobank senior analyst Hayley Moynihan.

“The New Zealand agribusiness sector is expected to play a major role as a reliable supplier of high-quality, safe food over the next decade, however it is not the only country eyeing the opportunities presented by the increasing food demand from a rising middle class in Asia. Maintaining competitiveness is vital to take full advantage of the opportunities,” she said.

Food safety is also an important factor identified by the report. “Plagued by local food safety issues, many trading partners are seeking the assurance of high quality imported food and agricultural products,” Ms Moynihan said. “And stringent food quality and safety frameworks already underpin production systems in New Zealand.”

Trade links

Throughout 2013, New Zealand’s strength in international trade links with key importing markets is expected to be a distinct competitive advantage for the country’s agri exporters, according to the Rabobank report.

“The inability of many, particularly developing countries, to feed growing populations through domestic production means that governments are aiming to facilitate trade flows and offshore investment in agriculture as a means of securing food supply,” Ms Moynihan said.

“Trade relationships and agreements are integral in developing and maintaining efficient access to global markets. The continued facilitation of trade flows to ensure stable food stocks globally in 2013 is expected to help support the local prices of agri commodities in New Zealand.”

For New Zealand, a key focus is the ongoing negotiations with Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan to form a Free Trade Agreement.

The report says foreign interest in New Zealand’s agricultural assets also looks set to continue in 2013, with the country’s reputation for quality food production making it an attractive destination for investors.

Other issues

Other key issues facing the agricultural sector in 2013 identified by the Rabobank report include the strong New Zealand dollar, increasing regulatory pressures and sector employment.

The New Zealand dollar is forecast to remain elevated for at least another 12 months, challenging the competitiveness and profitability of the country’s agricultural exports, the report says.Media Release February 11, 2013 3

“The elevated currency makes the pursuit of future productivity gains in New Zealand agriculture all the more critical,” Ms Moynihan said.

In addition, increasing regulatory pressures are creating some extra headwinds across the agricultural sector adding to the cost of production, as well as creating uncertainty, limiting resource availability and driving change in farming practices.

While attracting current and future generations to agriculture is a priority for all of the farming sector, Ms Moynihan says. “The challenge is not just meeting and being able to afford immediate labour requirements to get the job done, but identifying from where the next generation of farm owners, managers and agribusiness leaders will emerge,” she said.

Rural round-up

The return of milk scarcity – Rabobank on dairy:

The global dairy market appears to be heading for a period of renewed supply scarcity in the coming 12 months, according to Rabobank.

Rabobank senior dairy analyst Hayley Moynihan says the impetus for tightening emanates largely from the supply side, where low milk prices, extreme feed costs and pockets of unfavourable weather are expected to slow growth in milk production in export regions.

“We fear that much of the market has been lulled into a false sense of security by the phenomenal growth seasons we saw late in 2011 and early 2012, with the next 12 months to provide a rude awakening,” Ms Moynihan says. . . .

Dairy farming New Zealand can be proud of – Milking on the Moove:

I’ve changed my header to the Milking On The Moove logo. My goal is to create a dairy farming system that New Zealanders can be proud of.

I’m passionate about dairy farming and agriculture. While I have blogged about aspects that I think should change, I’m a fan of the industry. I’m concerned that Fonterra seems to get so much flack from the New Zealand public, which includes individual farmers.

I can understand left leaning environmentalists having a dim view of Fonterra, as that would be in keeping with their attitude towards corporates and big business in general. I’m concerned by the attitudes of middle New Zealand. It seems that many view Fonterra as a money hungry corporate giant that is screwing New Zealand consumers. I’m prepared to be a little understanding of a middle of the road New Zealander, who knows nothing about farming being influenced by the media. . .

Organics – Milking on the Moove:

Research out of Stanford University has shown that organic produce has no greater nutritional value than non-organic produce.

That’s not news to me, but I don’t think people buy organic food because they feel it is has a higher nutritional value, but rather because it is not covered in sprays and pesticides.

Jacqueline Rowarth points out repeatedly that organics generally produce 20% less yield than conventional farming methods. These farmers need to receive the premium that organics provides in order to stay profitable. But as the world begins to meet the needs of a growing population, all the figures I’m seeing require more product being produced from less and with a lower environmental impact. I’m doubtful that organics can achieve this.. .

 

Tokyo launch for coat range - Sally Rae:

A range of coats using merino wool from Closeburn Station in the Maniototo has been launched in Tokyo to much media interest.

Suit makers Konaka Co Ltd launched a range of 15-micron New Zealand wool coats to rival cashmere, under the label Limited Wool Premium. . .

 

New tech can help farmers head off enforced regulation

Farmers have an opportunity to put themselves ahead of the game regarding fertiliser application and avoid tough regulations being imposed on them, the annual meeting of Ravensdown was told in New Plymouth on Monday night.

Ravensdown Chief Executive Rodney Green told 500 shareholders that the company had developed new tools to enable farmers to get the most value out of their fertiliser regime, while still dealing with concerns raised by the likes of the Environment Court’s recent decision in favour of the nitrogen limits set by the Horizons Regional Council.

“We stood with Federated Farmers, Horticulture NZ and Fonterra making many submissions on behalf of farmers that were ultimately not given sufficient weight by the Environment Court,” said Rodney Green. “One thing, however, that is not in dispute is the fact that reducing the environmental footprint of New Zealand farming is increasingly important. Sustainable practices are an important part of the story to tell overseas customers about our farming produce and can also help deliver better results for the farmer’s bottom line.” . . .

Ngai Tahu boosts earnings from commercial operations, eyes bigger dairy development -  Paul McBeth:

Ngai Tahu Holdings, which manages the South Island iwi’s commercial operations, boosted earnings across all of its units and is looking to ramp up its exposure in dairy.

Net profit climbed to $95.7 million in the 12 months ended June 30, from $15.9 million a year earlier, the iwi said in its annual report. Operating earnings, which strip out gains from asset sales and property values, climbed 48 percent to $55.1 million on sales of $209.36 million.

Ngai Tahu Holdings invested $39 million in property development, $19 million in investment property mainly to do with dairy, and $22 million in the Agrodome and Rainbow Springs tourism operations. . .

 

‘ve changed my header to the Milking On The Moove logo. My goal is to create a dairy farming system that New Zealanders can be proud of.

I’m passionate about dairy farming and agriculture. While I have blogged about aspects that I think should change, I’m a fan of the industry. I’m concerned that Fonterra seems to get so much flack from the New Zealand public, which includes individual farmers.

I can understand left leaning environmentalists having a dim view of Fonterra, as that would be in keeping with their attitude towards corporates and big business in general. I’m concerned by the attitudes of middle New Zealand. It seems that many view Fonterra as a money hungry corporate giant that is screwing New Zealand consumers. I’m prepared to be a little understanding of a middle of the road New Zealander, who knows nothing about farming being influenced by the media.

Sheep, cattle numbers holding, prices not

Sheep and beef cattle numbers increased by 2.6% and 1% respectively in the year to the end of June.

Beef + Lamb New Zealand Economic Service director Rob Davison says this compensated for the 4.4 per cent decline in sheep and 2.6 per cent decline in beef cattle the previous year.

B+LNZ’s annual stock number survey, which establishes the productive base of livestock for 2012-13, shows that while sheep numbers were up 2.6 per cent most of this increase will be stock carried over for slaughter in July-September.

“Breeding ewe numbers at 20.61 million are almost static (+0.6%) on the previous June when ewe numbers fell 6.0% per cent to a low of 20.49 million. Strong mutton prices earlier in the year encouraged a high slaughter of cull ewes for the second year in a row. The offset to this was a high retention of ewe hoggets (+10%) last July which by 30 June 2012 were mature first time in lamb ewes.

“Ewe condition is good across the country. Scanning results for most regions show in-lamb ewes are carrying more multiple lambs with the general comment that scanning percentages are up 5 to 10 per cent on last year.

“All we need now is an excellent spring to ensure high survival of the lambs born.”

Davison said the scanning results lead to expectations that the 2012 lamb crop could be up on last spring by 1.0 million lambs (+4%). This outcome would lift the ewe flock performance measured by lambing percentage to around the highest achieved, which in 2009-10 was 123 per cent. There is potential to exceed this performance level. Each 1 percentage point change in lambing percentage equates to 200,000 lambs.

Beef cattle numbers increased 1.0 per cent to 3.88 million and partly reversed the 2.6 per cent decline for the previous year. North Island beef cattle numbers increased 3.6 per cent with increases in both the beef cow herd and weaner cattle numbers.

The South Island beef herd in contrast decreased 5.7 per cent. This decrease came from earlier slaughter due to good seasonal conditions so that fewer cattle were on hand at 30 June 2012, coupled to pressure from alternative land uses that include dairy grazing.

Davison says the Economic Service estimates the dairy herd increased 3.2 per cent with part of this increase a carry-over of older cows in the North Island due to excellent growing conditions.

Numbers might be holding but demand might not a report from Rabobank says:

While New Zealand sheepmeat producers have been enjoying a ‘full cup’ in recent times – with strong farmgate returns – a ‘steady hand’ will be required to balance future production levels with demand uncertainty across European markets, Rabobank reports.

In its recently-released report Sheepmeat – full cup, steady hand, the global agribusiness banking specialist says the New Zealand sheepmeat sector has been enjoying strong farmgate returns in the past two seasons as a result of retail price increases and limited supply availability.

However, the report cautions, a ‘steady hand’ will be required to manage the sector’s immediate future due to demand uncertainty across European markets as consumers feel the pressure of rising food costs against wage stagnation.

Report co-author Rabobank senior analyst Hayley Moynihan says global sheepmeat supplies are forecast to increase from 2013, off a low production base, although this volume growth is expected to be modest and availability will not fully recover 2010 levels until 2015.

“While sheepmeat demand has softened in developed markets, we expect retail prices will normalise at new levels – typically 10 per cent higher than the three-year average for most regions,” she says.

“For New Zealand producers, a positive outlook will persist in export markets as the economic outlook improves and the market balance remains tipped in their favour.”

That confidence in the future is reassuring because prices dropped throughout last season and the wise are not budgeting on any increase in the coming one.

However, she cautions that problems in Europe pose challenges.

In real terms, Ms Moynihan says, the increased cost of living for the average EU consumer is likely to exceed any growth in income – at least for the next 12 to 24 months.

“Added to this, annual food price inflation is running at three per cent and has been above total inflation since November 2011,” she says.

“Meat price inflation has led the charge, averaging 4.5 per cent year-on-year, with eastern European countries experiencing increases as high as 10 per cent in 2011.
These factors can be expected to weigh heavily on sheepmeat demand and to limit growth prospects.”

When we were in England in June we visited several supermarkets. The least expensive lamb we saw was about 8 pound a kilo – and that was marked down to half price. It was sitting beside pork and chicken which were about half that price again.

We can’t compete with those alternative sources of protein on price, we have to compete on quality. But as the European economies stutter fewer people will be able to go for quality rather than price.

The economic outlook for developed economies is for a slow recovery through to the end of 2013, Ms Moynihan says.

“Consumers in these markets will have to contend with protracted low real wage growth, which will limit sheepmeat demand growth and the potential for extracting further value gains,” she says.

“Emerging markets will continue to grow, albeit slightly below the rate of previous years, and offer opportunities for sheepmeat demand growth.”

The Rabobank report says retail prices will also be influenced by continued strength of competing meat prices; the impact of lower beef production from the US and EU on global supplies; and the rising beef production costs from Brazil, China and Australia.

“These factors are likely to mean that retail price movements for lower-value cuts will continue to rise faster than high-end cuts. This will be particularly evident across emerging economies and consequently will only provide limited upward pressure on farmgate returns for exporters,” it says.

People in some emerging economies were demand for sheepmeat is growing have a preference for lower value cuts.

We visited a packing house in England where they had responded to tougher times by packaging meat for human consumption from cuts which in better times had been used for pet food.

Ms Moynihan says by 2015, sheepmeat production from key exporting regions is expected to lift by an additional 135,000 tonnes per annum, which would bring global export supply back to 2010 levels.

“With potential economic growth in Asia and the Middle East, continued pressure on flocks in continental Europe and economic recovery in the EU, a bust in prices is not likely,” she says.

“With the cup of farmgate returns for sheepmeat in Oceania above half full, a steady hand will be required to ensure production grows in line with global market requirements.”

The next season or two might be difficult but it is reassuring to see a brighter forecast for the medium term.

Glimmers of hope for dairy industry

Fonterra may not be flavour of the month but that hasn’t put investors off.

The company has raised $800 million in less than a week with a bond offer that was oversubscribed by 267%.

This is a sign that investors have more faith in Fonterra and the dairy industry than the doomsayers who’ve been prophesying disaster by focussing on the difference in this year’s payout compared with last years without pointing out that $5.10 is still the third best payout the company has made.

Those whose glasses are perpetually half empty also don’t take into account that while the figures in the income column are smaller, so are those in the expenditure one thanks to big drops in interest rates and the price of fuel and fertiliser.

We may not be rolling in clover, but we’re still growing grass and converting it to protein and while the world may not be paying as much as it was a few months ago there’s still a market for milk.

Rabobank’s senior analyst Hayley Moynihan  says the medium to long term outlook is still good and that global supply is contracting in Europe and the USA  while falling prices are making dairy products more competive which will increase demand.

There’s another glimmer of hope for us from DairyCo which reports that the British  milk supply is declining.

It’s too soon to break out the champagne again, but there’s enough hope there to postpone the order for hair shirts.