David Shearer has called David Cunliffe’s bluff.
Today’s leadership vote is almost certain to give Shearer 100% support.
But what does he do with it?
If he demotes Cunliffe to the back benches with no hope of redemption, the aspiring leader will have nothing to lose and will continue to destabilise caucus.
If Shearer allows Cunliffe to retain his portfolio or at least gives him the hope that he could return to the front bench, there will still be no certainty about his behaviour.
Either way, questions over leadership will rumble, at least until February when the next vote will take place.