Every time I hear someone say that the result of the World Cup could make a significant difference to the election result, I cringe.
People vote, or don’t vote, for a whole lot of reasons, but surely the score of a rugby game, albeit the World Cup final, wouldn’t really matter much, would it?
Victoria University’s Dr Peter Thompson says it could, but not to a great extent:
A win will likely produce a temporary ‘feel good’ period, whereby the seriousness of other socio-economic problems is felt less acutely. This may have some short-term economic influence on consumer confidence (especially at the pub), but it’s not going to suddenly create an economic boom.
“A triumph is unlikely to directly affect voting behaviour, although the government may try to associate itself symbolically with the success on the sports-field (e.g. photo opportunities between politicians and the winning team).
“It is possible that if the All Blacks lose against France, there could be a mild reversal of this cultural influence with increased pessimism and perhaps greater scrutiny of whether the public expenditure was all worth it.”
A feel good factor with a win and a small reversal with a loss, but not a huge significance, then.
But do we care about rugby? Dr Marc Wilson from Victoria’s School of Psychology says:
Yes, and not solely the game itself. Firstly, more than half of the participants in my latest general population study (around 6000 participants) say they are rugby fans. . .
“Second, rugby represents one of the potential ‘sites’ around which our national identities cohere. . . .
“Why do we care? I’ve already given this away. Identity. Several decades of research indicates that we attach some of our self esteem to the groups and things with which we identify – our social identity. When those identities are positively valued (for instance when the ABs win) we get a boost to our self esteem.
“Should we care? It’s great when we win, but that doesn’t happen all the time, so probably not.”
That clear then – the result of Sunday’s game could have a small influence on voters and we do care about rugby but shouldn’t.
Hmm – tell that to the stadium of 4 million, minus a few gloom merchants, heretics and agnostics, who will be willing on the All Blacks this Sunday.
Then the political tragics among us can spend the next month being at least as anxious for the right result a month later.
Ele I don’t believe that an AB win will directly affect the result.
However, I believe that a “feel good” factor will have an impact on fringe voters. You are happy, your mood positive and perhaps with limited interest in politics they vote for the staus quo Nationals. Any government likes to see the voters happy.
If we win people will still be basking in NZ glory for the next month, with parades celebrating the victory. Could they be closet National Party meetings !!!
No doubt the report in todays ODT of John Key’s visit to Oamaru yesterday show Key continues to win the personal contest.When people want their photo taken on the street with the leader of political party that is quite significant.
People “like” his positive approach, which to many people surpasses political judgement.Phil Goff and Labour look petty and shrill.
Look at the USA, where Obama is still very popular personally but in his case the politics look bad in terms of employment.
However, don’t assume that will last all the next term !
Another comment. When the government makes Ritchie McCaw and Graham Henry knights(sir) that will add the icing to the cake.
“However, don’t assume that will last all the next term !”
I’m not assuming a win for either the All Blacks or National, much as I’d like them both!