Australia may have its first hung parliament in decades after election night results gave neither Labor nor the Liberals a majority.
Julia Gillard refused to concede last night and it’s possible she may be able to cobble together a coalition once preferences are counted. But coming second on election night was a loss for Labor and its very new leader.
However, being ahead by a nose but without a clear majority can’t be counted as a win for Tony Abbott and the Liberal Party either.
One of the criticisms of MMP is that it doesn’t necessarily give a conclusive election night result. But Britain’s election under First Past the Post earlier this year and Australia’s preferential system have both given indecisive results.
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A couple of points
Currently Labor holds more seats then the Liberal Party, AEC figures show
ALP – 71
Lib – 42
LibNatQld – 21
Nat – 7
Others – 8 (includes doubtful)
The Liberal Party has NEVER been able to gain sufficient votes to form a government without being in coalition. This is far from a win for Abbott, especially as the swing to Liberal is the smallest swing to the opposition ever at the end of a first term government.
The AEC site is also currently showing a 2 party preferred vote of
ALP 50.69
Coalition 49.31
It seems to me that Labor’s biggest mistake was not being left enough, look at the vote leak to the Greens.
LRO,
If you want to be technical, then yes. But I rather think that, given the nature of Australian politics, it’s mostly harmless to use the Liberals as shorthand for the coalition as a whole.
You will also be aware that it’s the number of seats won, not the overall 2PP vote, that typically determines who gets to be Prime Minister. It’s true that Gillard could use the 2PP vote in negotiations with independents as some kind of “moral right to govern” argument, but it’s doubtful whether that argument will be very convincing to people who answer to no-one but their own constituents. Especially if the Liberals coalition end up with more seats.
Not being left enough? Surely you jest. In almost all seats, Green votes are ultimately sent to the coalition or Labor anyway. And I’ll eat my hat if any voter who thinks Labor “isn’t left enough” would preference the coalition ahead of Labor. No, a movement to the left for Labor would see them pick up some primary votes off the Greens – votes that would have been theirs after preferences anyway. But there would be a corresponding switch of some of Labor’s more right-leaning supporters to the coalition, a switch that would almost certainly see Labor worse off after preferences.