About 9 years ago I was at a National Party meeting in Wellington.
The party had lost the previous election after nine years in government and was languishing in the polls.
A former cabinet minister had been expounding on what the party needed to do.
Someone sitting beside me sighed and said, “He doesn’t get it, does he. That’s what lost the last election and it’s not going to win the next one.”
She was right.
But there’s a lot more to winning again after being defeated at the end of nine years in government than that.
What the losing party does is only part of the story, what the winning party and its leader do and how they are perceived is even more important.
At the moment the polls put National well ahead of the opposition.
Labour doesn’t appear to understand why. But Chris Trotter does:
Helen Clark’s government – especially in its third term – wildly overshot the New Zealand political runway.
Kiwi voters were in the market for someone willing to haul the country back on to the “mainstream” tarmac. Someone who could return their lives to “normal” and release them from the uncomfortably negative emotions “Aunty Helen’s” behaviour had aroused.
Mr Key was that “someone”. . . . A successful bloke they could admire – but who never made them feel inadequate. A guy they could chat with over a summer barbecue without the slightest embarrassment. Someone whose kids looked remarkably like their kids. Someone, in short, remarkably like themselves. . .
. . .It’s not something Labour can do anything about. To attack John Key is to attack up to three-fifths of the voting public. . .
His fall can only be tragic – and Labour will have nothing to do with it.
Because New Zealanders will only fall out of love with John Key when they cease to love the image in the mirror he’s become.
I don’t think even Helen Clark’s biggest fans would have described her as someone remarkedly like themselves. But for the first few years of her government she was very popular and it seemed there was little National could do about it.
Under Bill English the party’s policy mellowed but that didn’t work. Under Don Brash policy moved in the other direction and it nearly worked.
It was a combination of growing disenchantment with Clark and her party, trust that National had swallowed some dead rats and enthusiasm for John Key which gave him the votes to be Prime Minister last year.
It’s partly what the government is doing but mostly who John Key is, that’s keeping poll support high.
Labour has to regain the disicpline the party had in government and stop doing stupid things to retain their bedrock support.
But there’s nothing they can do to attract back the swingers yet because Trotter is right: people like the image in the mirror.